India keeps a wary eye on Canada’s election

Canada is all set to vote on 28 April to elect a new government and a new Prime Minister. The Canadian elections, usually a low-key domestic affair, are this time being closely watched worldwide. The United States, under President Donald Trump, will follow the polls keenly, as will India, which has recently experienced a rather strained relationship with Canada.

But first, let’s take a look at the key players in this year’s race. There are five main parties: the Liberal Party, the Conservatives, the New Democratic Party (NDP), the sovereigntist Bloc Québécois and the Green Party. However, the real contest is between the Liberals and the Conservatives, led respectively by Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre. Depending on which party wins, either Carney or Poilievre is likely to become Canada’s next Prime Minister. A month ago, the Conservatives held a comfortable lead in the polls, but the Liberals have since narrowed the gap, and it now appears to be a close contest. Carney has only recently taken charge of the Liberal Party, succeeding Justin Trudeau, who announced his resignation in January and formally stepped down in March this year. Trudeau’s growing unpopularity prompted his exit, making this the first Canadian election in nearly a decade without his name on the ballot.

Carney vs Poilievre

The two contenders offer a sharp contrast in personality and approach. Carney, with a financial background, has been criticised by the Conservatives for being too close to the world of finance. Poilievre is known as a brash politician who advocates for a smaller role for government. However, both leaders appear united in pushing back against President Trump’s remarks suggesting Canada is the 51st US state. While Poilievre has faced accusations of arrogance, Carney has had to constantly prove that he differs from his predecessor, Justin Trudeau.

Canada follows a Parliamentary system of democracy, heavily influenced by the British model. Elections are held for 343 seats in the Federal Parliament, and the party securing a majority—172 seats or more forms the government. If no party crosses this threshold, the one with the highest number of seats must seek support from smaller parties, similar to coalition politics in India. Federal elections are held every four years. Last time, the Liberals fell short of a majority and relied on the NDP, led by Jagmeet Singh, for support.

India-Canada strained ties

India-Canada relations have deteriorated sharply over the past few years. India has consistently urged Canada to rein in Khalistani elements (a segment of Sikhs seeking an independent homeland), while Canada, particularly under Trudeau, often appeared to look the other way. Trudeau also faced pressure from the NDP, which supported the Liberals at the time. Jagmeet Singh, the NDP leader, is widely seen as a Khalistani sympathiser. Even after his party withdrew formal support, Singh continued to back Trudeau on issues involving India.

A major point of friction came when Trudeau publicly accused Indian officials of involvement in the killing of a Canadian citizen on Canadian soil, allegations India has strongly denied. Trudeau’s remarks were widely perceived as aimed at appealing to domestic audiences, especially the 2 per cent Sikh population with influence in Canadian politics.

Tensions further escalated following recent claims by Canadian officials that countries like India, China, Pakistan, and Iran may attempt to interfere in the elections using AI tools and disinformation. Additionally, former Liberal leadership hopeful Chandra Arya was disqualified from the race over alleged closeness to India. Arya, elected to the House of Commons in 2015, was barred from formally contesting the leadership in January, though the party gave no further explanation.

In October last year, India withdrew its High Commissioner and other diplomats from Canada. In essence, India-Canada ties have reached a historic low. The issues are many, but India’s primary concern remains Canada’s reluctance to act against Khalistani groups. With Trudeau’s departure, and if the Liberals under Carney manage a clear majority, there is some hope for a reset.

Polls suggest that Jagmeet Singh’s NDP may win fewer seats than in the previous election—possibly fewer than ten. A reduced presence would also diminish the party’s influence on national politics. Many in India believe that since relations deteriorated significantly under the Liberal government, a Conservative victory might help rebuild trust. With current polls showing a shift in public sentiment, helped in part by Trump, the Liberals seem to be regaining ground. While not an ideal scenario for India, Trudeau’s absence alone could help reopen diplomatic channels.

For Canada, too, rebuilding ties with India should be a post-election priority. India, in turn, should seize the opportunity created by the absence of Trudeau and Singh to push for greater sensitivity to its concerns. Canada would also do well to rely more on backchannel diplomacy rather than making public allegations, which only deepen mistrust. After 28 April, it remains to be seen how the new Canadian leadership will approach India and whether that could translate into a new beginning.

(The writer is a Delhi-based journalist with over a decade of experience covering foreign policy. Her work has appeared in leading Indian and international publications. She has reported from China, Japan, Israel and Pakistan, among other countries. She holds a Master’s in International Relations from American University in Washington DC. Her book "Piercing the Heart: Untold Stories of Mumbai 26/11" was published in 2008)