India will have jumbo problem on its hands

In news that should set off alarm bells, a new study has warned that wild elephants may disappear from parts of Karnataka and other southern states within decades due to habitat loss.

The first-ever analysis of the impact of climate change on jumbos also foresees a 42% loss in elephant habitats for the entire country, forcing the pachyderms to travel to higher altitudes for better water availability.

Unless actions are taken, the drop in elephant numbers would start appearing on the radar within the next 30 years, and by 2070 large parts of Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and some of the areas in the North-East and India-Nepal border would be in the red.

India is currently home to between 26,390 and 30,770 elephants while another 100-125 are in Nepal.

With the elephant numbers under constant threat, a group of 26 researchers from 18 institutions in eight countries decided to take a look on how the species distribution may change due to climate change that alters water cycles.

Using sophisticated modelling techniques, the researchers fed the models with a large number of inputs ranging from climatic features to human factors in order to have an idea of the pachyderms’ distributions by 2050 and 2070.

The study shows that by 2050, large tracts along the east coast and vast areas in Karnataka and Tamil Nadu will start losing jumbos. In northern India, the animals will move towards higher altitudes in the Himalayas.

“These are predictive models, looking ahead into the future if the present trend continues,” lead author of the study, Rajapandian Kanagaraj from National Museum of Natural Sciences, Madrid told DH. “Climate and land use changes will lead to the disappearance of elephant habitat, and local extinction of elephants in human-dominated areas in the eastern part of central and southern India.”

The study was published in the journal Diversity and Distribution.