Glacial lake floods loom over Jammu and Kashmir’s hydropower dreams

The GLOF Management Plan for Kishtwar has sounded alarm bells for the Chenab Valley

Srinagar: Jammu and Kashmir’s ambitious hydroelectric expansion, a cornerstone of India’s renewable energy push, faces a mounting threat from climate-induced disasters, with experts warning that Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) could jeopardise infrastructure and investments worth tens of thousands of crores.

The Union Territory (UT) hosts several key hydropower projects, including the operational Kishanganga (330 MW), Nimoo Bazgo (140 MW), Salal (690 MW), and Uri (1,200 MW) plants. On the Chenab river, multiple large projects — Pakal Dul (1,000 MW), Kiru (624 MW), Kwar (540 MW), and Ratle (850 MW) — are under development, making the region central not just for India’s clean energy ambitions but also for discussions surrounding the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan.

The GLOF Management Plan for Kishtwar 2024–25 has sounded alarm bells for the Chenab Valley. It identifies four flagship projects of Chenab Valley Power Projects Private Limited (CVPPL) — Pakal Dul, Kiru, Kwar, and Dangduru — as being particularly vulnerable.

“Rising water levels or potential dam breaches could threaten project infrastructure, disrupt operations, and increase downstream flood risk,” the assessment states. The report names the tehsils of Padder, Machail, Dachhan, Marwah, and Warwan as the most at risk due to their proximity to glacial lakes perched precariously above human settlements and project sites.

According to official estimates, the sanctioned cost of just three of these projects — Pakal Dul, Kiru, and Kwar — exceeds ₹22,535 crore. Any damage caused by a sudden flood triggered by a glacial lake breach could result in devastating economic losses alongside human tragedy.
Glacial Lake Outburst Floods occur when the natural dam of a glacial lake — often composed of loose moraine or ice — fails suddenly, releasing massive volumes of water downstream. These floods can be triggered by earthquakes, landslides, avalanches, or simply the melting of surrounding glaciers due to rising temperatures.
In the fragile Himalayan terrain, GLOFs are especially destructive. They can sweep away entire villages, farmlands, and infrastructure within minutes. Hydropower projects, with their tunnels, dams, and bridges, lie directly in their path.

The Himalayas have witnessed several GLOF-related disasters in recent years. In February 2021, a sudden flood in Uttarakhand’s Chamoli district — triggered by a glacier collapse — killed more than 200 people and destroyed two hydropower projects. The incident sent shockwaves across India’s hydropower sector and raised difficult questions about building large infrastructure in ecologically sensitive zones.
Jammu and Kashmir has not been spared either. Experts recall that the 2014 floods, which devastated the Kashmir Valley, were partly linked to unusual glacial and weather activity in the upper reaches.

Environmentalists argue that decision-makers have underestimated the risks while greenlighting multi-crore projects. “The Himalayas are extremely young and unstable mountains. With climate change melting glaciers faster than ever, projects like Pakal Dul and Kiru are sitting ducks in case of a major GLOF," says an environmental activist from Kishtwar.
Hydropower remains one of India’s largest renewable energy sources, contributing significantly to reducing dependence on coal. For J&K, surplus power generation also means potential revenue through inter-State sales. But the growing threat of GLOFs has forced policymakers into a tightrope walk.