Rajya Sabha, Assembly bypolls heat up Jammu & Kashmir politics

Srinagar: The political temperature in Jammu and Kashmir is rising as parties prepare for the Rajya Sabha elections on October 24 and assembly bypolls in Budgam and Nagrota on November 11. The coming weeks are expected to be a test of strength for regional and national players alike.

The ruling National Conference (NC) has fielded candidates for all four Rajya Sabha seats and is poised to win three, analysts say. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is likely to bag the fourth seat.

Currently, the NC has 41 MLAs in the 90-member J&K assembly, while BJP holds 28 seats. This numerical strength underlines NC’s dominance in the Valley and explains why it is strongly positioned to secure three of the four Rajya Sabha seats.

The Budgam and Nagrota assembly bypolls, slated for November 11, have yet to see declarations from major players. Except for BJP, no other party — including NC, Congress, or PDP — has officially announced candidates, even though Monday is the last date for filing nominations.

Sources indicate intense deliberations over candidate selection, alliances, and campaign strategies. For NC, the bypolls are particularly important, serving as a barometer of public support amid shifting political currents.

“These elections could significantly reshape J&K’s power dynamics,” said political analyst Prof Gul Mohammad Wani. “For NC, success in bypolls will reinforce its authority in the Valley and for BJP, expanding its foothold in both Rajya Sabha and assembly contests is key to long-term strategy.”

He said the results are expected to influence the broader political narrative in J&K, including preparations for the panchayat and municipal elections.

With nominations closing on Monday, parties are in a frenetic final stretch of lobbying, candidate finalization, and voter outreach. Analysts say the coming fortnight will be decisive, not just for the contests at hand, but for shaping alliances and political fortunes in the Union Territory for the years to come.