Record tourist arrivals in Jammu and Kashmir: Are the numbers accurate?

Srinagar: The recent claims of the government that 2.35 crore tourists visited Jammu and Kashmir in 2024 has sparked both celebration and skepticism in the Union Territory (UT).

While official data suggests a thriving tourism industry, local stakeholders question the accuracy of these figures, arguing that the use of “visits” rather than “tourists” misrepresents the actual state of tourism in the region.

According to the official numbers, 2,00,91,379 tourists visited Jammu in 2024, including 94,55,605 Vaishno Devi pilgrims, while Kashmir saw 34,98,702 tourist arrivals, including 5,11,922 Amarnath pilgrims. On the surface, these figures appear to show a booming tourism sector.

However, many in the tourism industry have expressed doubts, particularly regarding the distinction between counting “visits” versus counting “tourists.”

Farooq Ahmad Kuthoo, President of the Travel Agents Association of Kashmir, suggested that while around 25 lakh tourists, including pilgrims, may have visited the Valley last year, the government’s figures seem slightly inflated. “I am not sure what method the government uses to measure tourist arrivals,” Kuthoo told DH. “We had a good year for tourism, but I doubt the figures quoted by the government.”

He also pointed out that compared to last year, tourism bookings this year are down by 15 to 20 per cent.

A local travel operator further criticised the official figures, explaining that the statistics are based on visits to specific tourist destinations rather than individual tourists.

“A tourist visiting a single destination like Srinagar counts as one visit. But if the same individual later travels to popular spots like Gulmarg, Sonamarg, and Pahalgam, each of these trips is counted as a separate visit,” he said.

“This method inflates the numbers, as one person could potentially be counted as four separate tourists if they visit multiple locations within the region. The government is overstating the actual number of tourists to create an image of a thriving tourism industry, while the actual number of unique visitors is much lower than the government figures,” he added.

The concern was even echoed by none other than the Chief Minister Omar Abdullah, who acknowledged that the government counts visits on a destination-by-destination basis, much like the Government of India does in its own tourism data.

“We count visits destination-wise, just like the Government of India’s tourism figures are counted,” Omar clarified. “So, we are not saying that 2.35 crore people came here. We are saying that so many visits happened to so many sites.”

Omar, who also holds the tourism portfolio, said the government is prioritising the promotion of religious places and tourism.

A well-known hotelier who wished to remain anonymous emphasized that the distinction between visits and tourists is not just a technical issue but one with serious implications for tourism policy, planning, and resource allocation.

“Relying on inflated visitor numbers could mislead investors and policymakers, leading to decisions based on unrealistic expectations of tourism growth, ultimately affecting the sector’s long-term sustainability,” the hotelier warned.

While the official tourism figures may signal growth and recovery, it’s important to interpret them with caution. Greater transparency in how these numbers are calculated would help the public and industry stakeholders gain a clearer understanding of the true state of tourism in Jammu and Kashmir.