Leaders firm on BJP-JD(S) pact for Karnataka's local body polls, but cadre resist

Bengaluru: Having tasted success in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls and with local body elections (including those to Greater Bengaluru Authority) months away, the BJP-JD(S) alliance faces a dilemma — leaders deem it beneficial, but the cadre are uncomfortable.

At a recent press conference, former prime minister and JD(S) supremo H D Deve Gowda referred to his cordial relations with PM Narendra Modi, and categorically stated that the alliance would continue for all elections. Top leaders within BJP are also firm on the alliance.

After a crushing defeat in the 2023 Assembly elections — BJP won 66 seats and JD(S) got 19 (lowest for both parties since 1999) — the two parties did well in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, bagging 19 out of 28 seats. This is in contrast to the JD(S)’ alliance with Congress in 2019 that went awry, with the alliance bagging merely 2 of the 28 seats.

“BJP and JD(S) are both essentially anti-Congress parties. They have strong support from dominant communities – Lingayats support BJP, while Vokkaligas back JD(S). Their relationship is symbiotic, where both are in need of the other,” a BJP source said.

While Vokkaliga leaders within BJP want the alliance to continue, others are not keen on it, the source added. Things are rough at the grassroots, especially in old Mysuru region.

Disagreements are especially stark in some Assembly constituencies where the contest is primarily between BJP and JD(S).

A BJP MLA said a strong performance in old Mysuru region (largest of the 6 electoral zones in Karnataka) was necessary for BJP to come to power on its own (with 113 seats or more), which it is yet to achieve in Karnataka.

“We want to have a strong cadre base. These local body elections are elections of the cadre, where we need to give them power. An alliance may help in some places, but may affect our cadre in some districts”. 

While expressing the desire for the BJP to fight alone, the MLA said the party’s decision was final.

A legislator from JD(S) admitted that there were differences in some places.

“Locally, there are some issues. BJP leaders are not taking our workers into confidence. There’s no coordination in Hassan and our leaders don’t talk face to face with Dr K Sudhakar, BJP MP from Chickballapur”.

However, he said the JD(S) top brass was firm that the alliance would continue for the local body polls and added that differences would be sorted out.

There are also suggestions that the two parties may engage in a ‘friendly fight’ in the local body polls, as retaining cadre was crucial for both.

A source within JD(S) said the contours of the local body elections were very different from those of bigger elections.

“In local body elections, all parties think about organisational strengthening. Even BJP may not agree for an alliance in local body polls. For us, it will be difficult. It may be a friendly fight, but we will unite to capture power. Even when we were with Congress, we didn’t fight local body polls together”. 

Political Analyst and vice-president of Nitte Education Trust Sandeep Shastri  said, “Given the dynamics of local body elections, they may feel it’s perfectly okay for both sides to have a friendly contest. But the real crunch will come in the Assembly elections”.

“Since JD(S) is usually content with 2-3 seats in Lok Sabha polls, they agreed for three while allying with BJP then, and won two of those. But the dynamics are different in Assembly elections. As per the arithmetic of the Lok Sabha polls, JD(S) will get 24 Assembly seats. Will they be satisfied? If not, will the BJP be ready to concede more?”.  

Articulating that both BJP and JD(S) would have to make necessary sacrifices to continue the alliance for the 2028 Assembly polls, Shastri felt it was prima facie unlikely.

There are also concerns that the recent communal clashes at Keragodu, Nagamangala and Maddur in Mandya district – a traditional bastion of the JD(S) – may lead to a widening cadre base for BJP at the expense of the regional party.

The decision on the alliance for elections to local bodies will be crucial as it will have a direct bearing on the grassroots polity of both parties.