In Maharashtra’s fast-evolving political landscape, opposition faces uphill task to stay relevant

Mumbai: As Maharashtra navigates through a period of shifting loyalties, talks of reunions and fragmented alliances, the opposition in the state faces an uphill battle to reclaim lost ground, according to political analysts.

The Maha Vikas Aghadi, or MVA, comprising Congress, Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (SP), headed by Sharad Pawar, was decimated in last year’s assembly polls after it could win only 46 of the 288 seats in the state.

The next big contest it will face is the civic elections. On Tuesday, the Supreme Court ordered the state election panel to notify the polls, stalled for many years over the OBC quota issue, in four weeks.

However, NCP (SP) and Sena (UBT) have been hit by defections after the state elections. In Congress, Sangram Thopte from Pune district was the only big leader who quit the party recently.

Senior Congress leader Ratnakar Mahajan told PTI that a common understanding of the situation and electoral unity must drive the opposition’s attempts to revive itself.

According to political analysts, unless a clear leadership strategy and unified agenda emerge, the opposition risks becoming increasingly irrelevant in the state dominated by the Mahayuti coalition of the BJP, Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP.

“The opposition’s biggest challenge is to reinvent itself,” said a political analyst.

“The ground-level discontent on issues like inflation, unemployment, and farmer distress exists, but there is no single face or cohesive force to channel it,” he said.

Senior journalist Prakash Akolkar said veteran politician Sharad Pawar’s moves are being closely watched.

“The key is with (Pawar’s daughter) Supriya Sule. As usual, Sharad Pawar is ambiguous and has created a flutter with a stray remark about reuniting with his politically estranged nephew Ajit Pawar, as reported by a section of media,” he told PTI.

At 84, Sharad Pawar is fighting to keep his party relevant in NCP strongholds, even as he prepares a succession plan led by Sule, said political analysts.

Defections may not be its biggest challenge, but the Congress struggles to appeal to younger voters seeking fresh alternatives.

Once a powerhouse in Maharashtra politics, it has retained some influence only in the Vidarbha and Marathwada regions.

Sena (UBT) continues to enjoy emotional support among the traditional voters of the Bal Thackeray-founded Shiv Sena in Mumbai and parts of the Konkan region, though its organisational strength has reduced after the split engineered by Shinde in 2022.

The battle to control the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation, the richest civic body in the country, ruled by the undivided Shiv Sena for more than two decades, will be the biggest political contest for Thackeray, said an analyst.

“The opposition has four and a half years for the next assembly polls. However, if no corrective measures are taken, the 2029 elections may heavily favour the ruling coalition again. For now, the opposition is banking on the local bodies elections,” said an observer.

Maharashtra Congress president Harshwardhan Sapkal told PTI that his party would continue to fight the BJP, taking along those who wished to “protect democracy and the Constitution”.

He said those with courage and the strength to struggle for the next four years will remain in the MVA.

“When elected representatives say they need to be in power to get people’s work done, it sets a dangerous precedent. It proves that democratic institutions have weakened,” he said.

The local body polls will be a litmus test of the opposition unity, he said.

The buzz around a possible reconciliation between Raj Thackeray, who heads the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), and his politically estranged cousin Uddhav has added a new dimension to Maharashtra politics.

Though no formal announcements have been made, political analysts feel the cousins might be exploring ways to collaborate, particularly in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR), where both parties command influence among Marathi voters.

“After the split in his party, Uddhav is keen to consolidate the Marathi votes. The MNS, despite limited electoral success in recent years, still retains pockets of influence among the urban Marathi-speaking electorate, particularly in Mumbai, Thane, and Nashik,” said an observer.

However, some analysts feel Raj Thackeray can be unpredictable with his political stands.

“Raj Thackeray seems to be moving away from the BJP-led alliance after the assembly elections. In (last year’s) Lok Sabha polls, he had supported Prime Minister Narendra Modi,” said a political observer.

Recently, he opposed the government for making Hindi mandatory from Class 1. The latest being his comments targeting the Centre after the Pahalgam attack, a political analyst said.

Pluses aside, if not managed strategically, the alignment might cost both Thackerays dearly, he said.

“There have been no official talks in this direction so far,” said MNS general secretary Vageesh Saraswat.

Sapkal said it is too early to comment on the buzz concerning the Pawars and Thackerays.

“If two parties and two brothers reunite, there is no need for any objection. The Congress’ ideology is ‘Bharat Jodo’. The Congress will support any party that stands for the protection of democracy and the Constitution,” he said.

He said the decision on alliances for the civic polls will be taken at the local level.