Lok Sabha polls: NCP, Shiv Sena splits, no corporation elections since Covid could spring surprises in Maharashtra

Mumbai: With a distinct change in the political scenario since the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the splits in two major political parties, and lack of real assessment of the ground situation in cities because of no corporation elections since the Covid-19 pandemic, Maharashtra - which accounts for 48 seats - could throw up surprises in the 2024 five-phased polls.

After Uttar Pradesh, which has 80 seats, the western state is going to be important for the BJP-led Maha Yuti, a 10-party formation within the NDA bloc and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi, an 8-party group within the I.N.D.I.A. bloc.

The polls are going to be important for Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) and Sharad Pawar, who now heads the NCP (SCP) and - as their parties have undergone splits have been claimed by Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar - the Chief Minister and Deputy Chief Minister, respectively.

BJP’s trouble-shooter and Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, who calls the shots in the state - who had been a former Chief Minister and ex-Leader of the Opposition in the Assembly - was asked by the BJP high command to take the No 2 slot after the MVA was toppled.

When, in 2009, the Congress-led UPA government was elected for the second time headed by Dr Manmohan Singh, from Maharashtra, the Congress and undivided NCP - which was known as Democratic Front - won 17 and 8 seats, respectively, while the BJP and Shiv Sena won 9 and 11 seats, respectively while others/independents got 3.

In 2014, the country witnessed the Narendra Modi-wave and the then Gujarat Chief Minister became the Prime Minister. At that time, the saffron alliance comprising BJP and undivided Shiv Sena won 23 and 18 seats, respectively, while independent/others 1.

In 2019, the same situation prevailed, with the BJP and Shiv Sena winning 23 and 18 seats respectively, with Congress reduced to 1 seat while NCP remained at 4 and independent/others at 2.

The period between 2019-24 is critical as there has been a realignment of the political forces in Maharashtra and more churning is going to take place in the days to come.

After the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, there were Vidhan Sabha polls in October, after which the situation changed and Thackeray parted ways with BJP leading to the formation of the undivided Shiv Sena-NCP-Congress alliance with Thackeray as Chief Minister.

Then came Covid and the BJP made all attempts during the pandemic to destabilise the government. In June-July 2022 there was a split in the Shiv Sena and in June-July 2023 NCP faced a similar fate.

Because of the Covid-19 pandemic and subsequent issues pending before the Supreme Court, the elections to 29 municipal corporations of Maharashtra - which is more than 60-65 per cent of state’s 13 crore population - have not been held and they do not have an elected body.

Elections are due in urban centres like Mumbai and for eight other corporations of larger Mumbai metropolitan region -Thane, Vasai-Virar, Mira-Bhayander, Kalyan-Dombivli, Navi Mumbai, Pune, Pimpri-Chinchwad, Panvel, as well as for other civic bodies in Nashik, Aurangabad, Nagpur, and Amravati.

There has also been a lot of migration at the ground level involving both the camps plus there is resentment among the rank and files all of which will contribute to how the Lok Sabha polls play out in Maharashtra.