With Cyclone Biparjoy, wait for monsoon would be a bit longer

With the cyclonic storm Biparjoy developing in the Arabian Sea, the wait for southwest monsoon would be a bit longer, according to a paper collated by Climate Trends.

The weather system is presently sustaining the strength of a very severe cyclone. According to meteorologists, atmospheric conditions and cloud mass are indicating that the system is likely to sustain the strength of a very severe cyclone till June 12.

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the system is likely to be more organized and may intensify up to a very severe cyclonic storm by June 9.

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“Weather conditions are very ripe for the system to continue to gain more strength. With long sea travel ahead, Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are very warm, infusing more heat and moisture into the atmosphere. This would help the system sustain its strength for a longer period,” said GP Sharma, President, Meteorology and Climate Change, Skymet Weather.

“The oceans have become warmer already on account of climate change. In fact, recent study shows that the Arabian Sea has warmed up by almost 1.2 degree Celsius since March, thus conditions are very much favourable for the rapid intensification of the system so it has potential to sustain the strength for a longer period,” said Dr Raghu Murtugudde, Professor, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland and IIT Bombay.

According to the report, 'Changing status of tropical cyclones in the north Indian Ocean’, the frequency, duration, and intensity of cyclones in the Arabian Sea have increased significantly. The intensity of cyclones also has increased in the Arabian Sea, by about 20 per cent (post-monsoon) to 40 per cent (pre-monsoon). There has been a 52 per cent increase in the number of cyclones in the Arabian Sea, while very severe cyclones have increased by 150 per cent. Further, there has been an 80 per cent increase in the total duration of cyclones in the Arabian Sea during the last two decades. The duration of very severe cyclones has increased by 260 per cent.

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“An exceptionally warm Arabian Sea, a weak monsoon onset, and favourable Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) conditions in the Indian Ocean are favouring this cyclone. With this, it would not be the case of classic Monsoon onset, satisfying all the given criteria. We would have scattered rains along the West Coast strip but no inland penetration and widespread rains,” said Dr Roxy Mathew Koll, Climate Scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology and Lead IPCC Author.