Daily Covid-19 cases drop below 1.75 lakh after 45 days

India on Friday registered its lowest daily count of Covid-19 cases in 45 days as nearly 1.71 lakh fresh cases were recorded in the last 24 hours.

As many as 359 districts — mostly in central and northern India — reported less than 100 daily cases between May 19-25, as per Union Health Ministry data. The number of such districts was 531 between April 28 and May 4, which demonstrates a diminishing trend in 172 districts.

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More than two lakh daily count of Covid-19 cases was reported for 10 days since May 17 before it dipped to more than 1.86 lakh and 1.71 lakhs in the last two days. The active caseload drops to just above 22 lakh as 24 states reported a decline since last week.

However, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra continue to report a high number of fresh cases each day as more than 60% of the daily cases come from these five states. More than 10% positivity is reported from over 300 districts.

In addition, the North East may emerge as a new zone of concern as the pandemic is growing in each of the seven states, though the caseload is low in terms of number.

Tamil Nadu, Odisha, Ladakh, Sikkim and other northeastern states have been reporting an increase in active cases since last week.

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Two different disease prediction models found an R value of greater than one for every NE state, signalling the epidemic’s growth in the eastern corner.

R or reproductive number is a measure of the virus’s infectivity. For example, an R value of 1.9 would mean 10 Covid-19 affected persons will transmit the disease to 19 others. For the epidemic to subside, the R value will have to drop below one.

According to the first model created by Bhramar Mukherjee and her team at the University of Michigan, the values are – Assam (1.11), Tripura (1.54), Manipur (1.11), Meghalaya (1.58), Arunachal Pradesh (1.34), Nagaland (1.00) and Mizoram (1.21). For India, it is 0.79.

The second model, developed by Sitabhra Sinha at the Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Chennai came up with similar figures for Assam (1.24), Tripura (1.55), Manipur (1.18), Meghalaya (1.40), Arunachal Pradesh (1.20), Nagaland (1.07) and Mizoram (1.20). For India, it is 0.83.

“The epidemic is peaking now in the North East. The onset of outbreaks was also delayed in these states, and therefore the end will also be correspondingly after a few weeks later compared to other parts of the country,” Giridhar Babu, an epidemiologist at the Public Health Foundation of India told DH.

"When you have small (population) numbers it is easy to get a high value for R, but I do think it could be related to Assam, which is the central hub," added Mukherjee.

Since late April, the daily Covid-19 count is on a steady rise in Assam that logged more than 5,400 cases in the last 24 hours.