Insurgency in Northeast: Peace pangs in periphery

Insurgency in India’s northeastern region is down, but still far from being over as peace-processes either remain stalled, or give birth to new conflicts

As the ‘Har Ghar Tiranga’ is set to mark the celebration of the 75th anniversary of the Independence, the national tricolour will flutter across India. But, on the outskirts of Dimapur in Nagaland, the leaders and the cadres of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (Isak-Muivah) will hoist a different flag on Sunday – a day before the Independence Day will be celebrated in the rest of the country.

The Naga national flag the NSCN (IM) leaders will hoist has a Star of Bethlehem and a red-yellow-green rainbow on an azure background. They will commemorate the "Declaration of Independence" of Nagaland by the Naga National Council on August 14, 1947, hours before Jawaharlal Nehru had delivered his “Tryst with Destiny” speech ushering in an independent India.

It has been 25 years since the Government of India signed a ceasefire agreement with the NSCN (IM) on August 1, 1997, but a final solution to end the seven decades-long Naga insurgency has remained elusive. The rebels, lodged at the “Camp Hebron” in Dimapur, haven’t yet given up on their core demands – one of them being the recognition of the “national flag” of the Nagas and the other being a separate constitution for the community.

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Manipur, where the Meitei groups too had declared Independence on August 14 in 1947, too will have a shutdown on Monday, as the rebel groups stuck to the annual ritual of calling upon people to boycott the Independence Day celebrations.

As India celebrates “Azadi Ka Amrit Mahotsav”, its northeastern region – surrounded by China, Myanmar, Bhutan and Bangladesh – remains troubled by myriad unresolved conflicts, which has given birth to many armed insurgencies.

The Ulfa-Independent and the NSCN (KYA), two insurgent groups active in Assam and Nagaland respectively, too have issued similar calls to boycott the Independence Day.

Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma on January 1 this year announced that the era of "tribal insurgency" in the state was over. His announcement followed signing of the "final agreements" between the government and the all four factions of National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB) as well as the Karbi and Dimasa insurgent groups over the past couple of years. The NDFB had run a reign of terror in and around the Bodo-majority areas of Assam for nearly four decades. More than 2,000 insurgents have laid down their weapons in Assam in 2020 and 2021.

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But, even after signing of the new accords with Bodo and Karbi groups, the old demands for a separate state of Bodoland as well as an autonomous state for the Karbis under Article 244A of the Constitution have not died down yet. Thus the possibility of another phase of violent movement in the two regions in Assam cannot be ruled out.

Hurdles for peace in NE

A major problem in the process to resolve the conflicts is the birth of the new militant groups from the same region or community after one enters a ceasefire pact, starts dialogue or signs an agreement with the government.

Talks with the Ulfa group led by its chairman, Arabinda Rajkhowa, and general secretary, Anup Chetia, have been underway since 2011. But another faction led by Paresh Baruah (Ulfa-Independent) is still out of the peace-process and continuing its armed insurgency with the demand for a "sovereign Assam”. The outfit continues to use territories of neighbouring Myanmar as its hideouts. “Paresh Baruah group is the last hurdle in establishing peace (in Assam),” Sarma had said.

So, beyond keeping the insurgency at a low-intensity level, the peace processes did not lead to permanent resolution of the conflicts, with the only exception being the Mizo insurgency, which ended after the 1986 accord between the government and the Mizo National Front.

Another major hurdle before the government while signing an accord is the demand over the same territory by two rebel groups. The Kamtapur Liberation Organisation, another insurgent group active in Assam and North Bengal, stepped up demand for Kamatapur state comprising some areas in Bodoland region and in Bengal soon after the Centre signed a new agreement with the Bodo groups in 2020.

Pallab Bhattacharyya, a retired IPS officer, said the resentment among certain ethnic communities about lack of development continues to fuel insurgency. “The mantra of Sabka Sath Sabka Vikash and Sabka Viswash has not reached certain communities, like the Morans and the Muttucks of Assam, who are the sheet anchor of the ULFA. Economic progress of all the communities in the real sense of the term is the only remedy for this," he said.

Though the insurgency related incidents in the region in 2020 was the lowest in two decades, the situation in Manipur and Nagaland was still a concern.

Apart from the demands for flag and the constitution, what also came in the way of a final settlement to end the Naga insurgency was the NSCN (IM)’s insistence for "unification" of all Naga-inhabited areas in Assam, Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh, in addition to those in Nagaland. This is strongly opposed by the militant groups and civil society organisations of the states adjoining Nagaland. The NNPG, the forum of seven other Naga rebel groups, with which the Centre signed another preliminary agreement in 2017, however, is ready to sign the final agreement immediately. "The delay is nothing but due to the power struggle between the NSCN-IM and the NNPGs. The flag and the constitution is just an excuse,” Kahuto Chisi Sumi, convenor of Concerned People of Nagaland, a civil society organisation, told DH. “They did not talk about the flag and Constitution earlier. Main problem in Nagaland now is corruption. Most of the rebels and officers are getting share of the development funds released by the Centre for Nagaland. But the condition of the ordinary Naga people in the remote villages has remained the same.”

On how to deal with the birth of new factions after an agreement, Bhattacharyya suggested, "If a memorandum of settlement is to be signed with the majority faction, the fringe elements should be treated as extremist and dealt with accordingly without any future prospect of negotiation."

Home Minister Amit Shah last year said that all conflicts in the northeastern region would be resolved by 2024. But, going by the precedents and the current scenario in the region, this too appears to be a promise, which the government may find difficult to deliver on.