India likely to cross 1 lakh Covid-19 deaths this week if daily mortality trend persists

India's death toll from the Covid-19 is set to cross the 1,00,000 mark later this week if the daily mortality trend through September persists despite a 50% fall in the case fatality rate over the past three months.

As the death count was more than 1,000 in each of the last 28 days in September, it is likely that the national toll would cross 1,00,000 by Thursday or Friday if a similar trend continues given that the toll currently is 96,000 plus.

But going by the Union Health Ministry that updated its figures only once in a day in the morning, the toll is 95,542 out of which 1,039 were killed in the last 24 hours.

As many as 84% of the new deaths are reported from 10 states and union territories, with Maharashtra leading the chart with 380 deaths, followed by Tamil Nadu and Karnataka with 80 and 79 deaths respectively.

Nearly 36% of these deaths are from Maharashtra that remained the epicentre of the Covid-19 epidemic in the last few months.

Even though India's case fatality ratio has come down from 3.2% on June 20 to 1.57% on Monday – a fall of nearly 50% - the numbers are still sobering on the absolute terms as the respiratory infection spreads far and wide in the country.

India is the second-worst hit nation in terms of Covid-19 cases after the US, while it is in the third spot in terms of fatalities globally after the US and Brazil. The Union Health Ministry officials, however, insist that India has one of the world's lowest case fatality ratio.

“India’s continuously rising recovery rate and progressively falling case fatality rate have proven the success of the Covid-19 containment strategy followed by all States and UTs," Union Health Minister Harsh Vardhan said on Monday at an ICMR event.

Public health experts, however, questioned the utility of the existing testing and containment strategy as the epidemic spreads. “Early on when numbers were very few, (indiscriminate) testing helped in isolation and quarantine of infected persons. But later on, when infection is widespread, such testing has no effect on the epidemic curve,” T Jacod John, eminent virologist and a retired professor of Christian Medical College, Vellore told DH.