JOIN USChinks in Gujarat 'model' still haunt BJP in Modi's home state
The BJP's 2017 Assembly win in Gujarat was the hollowest of its, until then, 22-year-long rule in the state.
It won 99 of the 182 seats, its lowest tally since 1995. The underwhelming win exposed the BJP's losses in the state's rural belt, the boasts about its 'Gujarat model' and the Achilles heel of its governance — joblessness, agrarian distress, rural despair and the poor state of public health and education.
The Congress built on the issues for the next 12 months, worsting the BJP in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan a year later.
Five years hence, according to survey findings of New Delhi-based think tank CSDS, those issues continue to haunt the BJP in Gujarat, along with the perception that inflation and corruption have increased.
However, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's popularity remains undiminished despite the interest in AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal. The Opposition is trying to hammer on price rise, increasing poverty and joblessness as central issues. The BJP will take the attention away from economic issues to that of Gujarati 'asmita' and Hindutva pride.
But it also needs to neutralise the Opposition campaign. On Thursday, hours after the EC announced the Gujarat poll schedule, Modi addressed an event in neighbouring Maharashtra via video-conferencing, where he said his government had disbursed Rs 20 lakh crore under the MUDRA scheme to encourage self-employment.
Modi reiterated his government's commitment to providing 10 lakh jobs by December 2023. He released the 12th instalment of PM Kisan Nidhi on October 17.
Wary after the 2017 poll verdict, the BJP knows the Gujarat results would impact elections in Karnataka and the three north Indian states. In 2017, the BJP escaped defeat thanks to Gujarat's four urban centres, winning 44 of the 55 seats in Surat, Vadodara, Rajkot and Ahmedabad. The Congress and its allies won 72 of Gujarat's 127 semi-urban and rural seats against the BJP's 55.
Much, however, has changed since then in Gujarat. Rahul Gandhi's Bharat Jodo Yatra will skip Gujarat. The Kejriwal-led AAP is on the upswing but weak in rural areas. But Modi understands the Congress's strength in Gujarat's tribal and rural belt and asked workers, lest they become overconfident, to be alert to its "silent campaign".
Factors in the BJP's favour are a perception that public health services and education have improved since 2017 and the 'double engine' government is doing better. The BJP's sacking of Vijay Rupani and his entire council of ministers has also helped. On the face of it, Gujarat should be a cakewalk for the BJP, but its top leadership is nervous enough to not leave anything to chance.