Of Patidars, parties and politics in Gujarat

On Saturday, when poll strategist Prashant Kishor met the Congress top brass, a key agenda was the induction of influential Leuva Patel figure Naresh Patel into the party.

The community has given Gujarat four CMs in the past among all five Patidar CMs.

Votes of the powerful Patidar community can influence results in more than 60 of 182 Assembly constituencies.

The BJP, after being restricted to 99 seats in the 2017 Assembly polls, has worked big time to win back Patidars, whose substantial chunk had moved to Congress then under the influence of Hardik Patel.

Nearly three decades ago, the Patidars had moved lock, stock and barrel to the saffron party after Congress’ then CM Madhav Singh Solanki experimented with a Kshatriya-Harijan-Adivasi-Muslim (KHAM) coalition to wrest power.

Political analyst Rasheed Kidwai says, “The smart thing to do in Gujarat politics is to keep the Patidar with you (at least not against you). The parties will have to manage an umbrella coalition of caste groups, which are not so inimical to Patidars. Winning Gujarat for any Opposition party will be a tough challenge given the state is home to both PM Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah, and they will not leave any stone unturned to keep the saffron flag fluttering there.”

In the past five years, Congress MLAs’ number has come down from 77 to 65. Recently a party leader alleged that ahead of the upcoming elections, the BJP is “trying to lure” 10 Congress legislators. In 2020, Congress had to pack off its MLAs to a resort, fearing poaching after a few joined the BJP. Also, realising the damage and the future potential of Patidars’ shift to Congress, the BJP replaced its CM Vijay Rupani with a Patidar leader Bhupendrabhai Patel last year.

In March, the BJP-led Gujarat government announced the withdrawal of 10 cases lodged in connection with the 2015 Patidar quota stir after Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS) threatened to relaunch the agitation.

On April 10, PM addressed the foundation day celebrations of the Umiya Mata (the clan deity of Kadwa Patidars) temple. He also has a two-day visit plan for Gujarat on April 19-20 to attend several events. BJP has already carried out a bike rally targeted at covering 90 of the 182 constituencies.

In the past few months, Congress has begun moves to strengthen its Patidar support base. Months after appointing Hardik Patel as Gujarat Congress Working President, the party reached out to influential Naresh Patel, who is the head of the Khodaldham trust, even at the cost of somewhat annoying Hardik, who had spearheaded the Patidar quota agitation in the state in 2015 that had marked the beginning of BJP’s woes in 2017.

The AAP, which had earlier reached out to Naresh Patel, recently offered an olive branch to Hardik, sensing a ‘rift’ between the two leaders. The AAP hailed Hardik as a leader who has come on his own and should not “waste” his time with Congress. This was after Hardik voiced his anguish with his party and said, “You used Hardik in 2017; you want to use Naresh Bhai in 2022, and in 2027 you would use another Patidar leader.”

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