Cases down, tests on decline, deaths still on higher side: Delhi’s war against Covid-19

The national capital is in lockdown since April 20, but this week it was made more stringent

Delhi in mid-May is not what it was two weeks ago when people were scrambling for a hospital bed or oxygen cylinders for Covid-19 patients.

The cases and positivity rate have come down with the number of tests sliding by around 20-25,000, but deaths continue to hover over 300 a day while the city government has opened a battle front with the Centre over supply of vaccines.

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The national capital is still in lockdown, which was imposed on April 20, but this week it was made more stringent with the shutting down of Metro services and banning marriage functions in public places like banquet halls with Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal on Sunday saying that the time was not ripe to lift the restrictions, though cases have come down.

On Tuesday, the capital recorded 13,287 cases out of 78,035 tests with a positivity rate of 17.03%, the lowest since April 16 when the positivity rate was 19.69% and 98,957 tests were done. The capital’s test positivity rate had risen since then and had touched 36.24% on April 22.

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Delhi had been conducting over 80-90,000 tests daily till April 20 but has since then decreased – in the past 21 days, the number of tests crossed 80,000 mark only twice, while the last few days has seen the number of tests between 60-70,000. Since April 1, the highest number of tests were conducted on April 11 when 1,14,288 samples were tested.

While the cases are decreasing, one of the concerns is the number of deaths. While on April 1, there were only nine deaths, it rose to 448 on May 3, the highest for a single day, and since April 22, the casualties have never gone below 300-mark, except for May 9. The first three days of May saw over 400 deaths.

Kejriwal said that Covid-is 19 reducing in Delhi and the “second wave is also subsiding” but added that one needs to maintain caution, even as the oxygen supply to the capital has almost stabilised after a bitter fight with the Centre.

However, health economist Rijo M John, who is studying Covid-19 cases trend, is concerned about the situation. “Indeed Delhi's cases started declining only after the daily testing started declining. However, the average daily test positivity rates have also begun to decrease in the past few days suggesting that the new cases may be actually on the decline. However, it is a bit early to confidently say it has reached a peak. One could have said it with confidence only if the Delhi government had not decreased daily testing” John told DH.

Bhramar Mukherjee, Professor of Epidemiology in University of Michigan School of Public Health, tweeted on May 9 that the curve for Delhi shows public health interventions work and they save lives. "We have a lot more work to do, people are still suffering and in tremendous pain, but after Maharashtra, Delhi also looking hopeful. However, we cannot declare premature victory, never again!" she said.

While the hospital infrastructure is being ramped up, the Delhi government has also flagged concerns about the supply of vaccines to the capital, saying it is inadequate and accusing the Centre of exporting it when there is huge demand. Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia on Tuesday said it’s stock for Covaxin, one of the vaccines, has finished and it had to close down around 100 vaccination centres in 17 locations.