JOIN USThe long wait for the Assembly polls in Jammu & Kashmir
In another two weeks, Jammu & Kashmir will complete five years without an elected government.
Almost five years after the fall of the PDP-BJP government, people in J&K are waiting for the necessary ritual of Assembly polls that would give them back their legislative body lost after the Centre scrapped the Special Status and turned it into a Union Territory.
The last time Assembly elections were held was back in 2014.
While the uncertainty is prompting much hand-wringing, for a while, the Centre dropped the right signals: seats were redrawn after delimitation and a new voters' list was prepared.
Amid these processes, the Modi government went to town regularly about the improving situation in the UT under its rule to build optics.
These moves raised hopes but when silence followed, it triggered suspicions.
The Opposition claims the BJP is delaying the polls, fearing losing in both the Kashmir Valley and its so-called stronghold, Jammu. They also allege that the BJP wants to defer the polls as long as possible to accomplish its "nationalist agenda" during the central rule.
The question on their lips: what is keeping the Centre and the EC from holding the Assembly polls when the administration went ahead with municipal and panchayat polls in 2018, despite threats from militants and boycott calls from separatists and parties?
"What prevents them from doing that when they say there is a lot of tourism, the situation is very good. That is why I say, if the situation is so good, why not hold elections? What prevents them,” asked National Conference leader Farooq Abdullah, a veteran who has seen many elections sabotaged, in May.
Kashmiris, too, are exasperated.
“We have been suffering immensely in the absence of an elected government for the last five years. When Lok Sabha, panchayat and municipal polls could be held, why not Assembly elections,” asked Abdul Rehman Dar, a Srinagar-based businessman.
The new Jammu and Kashmir Assembly has 114 seats, of which 24 are in Pakistan-occupied-Kashmir. Of the rest 90 where elections could be held, 47 are in the Kashmir Valley and the rest 43 in the Jammu region.
When the Assembly was dissolved in November 2018, the initial expectation was that the state election would happen along with the Lok Sabha polls in April-May 2019. But the Modi government had other plans.
The Election Commission deferred the Assembly polls citing the constraints over the availability of central forces and other logistics. Three months later on 5 August, 2019, the Modi government revoked the state's special status, sending shockwaves across the state and beyond.
The decision brought Kashmir valley to a grinding halt for months. But in March 2020, the Delimitation Exercise was announced, and it took the centre stage in Jammu and Kashmir's frozen politics. The government argued that the redrawing of Assembly and Parliament seats in accordance with Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act, 2019 were a prerequisite for holding the state polls.
J&K leaders waited as the Centre ticked off the checklist.
The Delimitation Commission's report came in May 2022 after several delays; and in November last year, the special summary revision of electoral rolls was completed.
People and leaders thought this was it; election dates would have to be announced now. But nothing happened.
Political analysts believe the BJP is delaying polls as it would prefer a longer central rule rather than risk a hostile government.
“Both the NC and the PDP can’t afford to compromise on the demand of restoration of Article 370 as their main voter base is the Kashmir Valley. A non-BJP government after elections would have the potential of a regular confrontation between Srinagar and New Delhi. The Centre would not like to see such a situation happening," political analyst Zaffar Choudhary told DH.
In January this year, there was a buzz about elections. But it was short-lived.
DH reported that the prospects of an early election dimmed after the BJP national executive meeting did not put Jammu and Kashmir in the list of 'election-bound' states.
The political resolution adopted in the January national executive also had no mention about the scenario in Jammu and Kashmir.
Two months ago in March, leaders from 13 parties in Kashmir met the Election Commission in Delhi.
“When we visited the Election Commission, we were told that the delimitation exercise, voter lists have been completed. All they are doing is managing new excuses every day to delay the Assembly elections," Abdullah said then.
Political watchers say there is no immediate window in Kashmir this year as polls cannot be held during winter. So, will elections be held during the Lok Sabha elections next April-May?
Only the Modi government can say. For now, all people in Jammu and Kashmir can do is hope and pray.