Road ahead for India in Afghanistan after US, Taliban sign peace deal

Afghanistan has been a battleground for various parties over several decades. India has had a minimal role, if any, in the fragile state but the country enjoys a lot of goodwill due to its minimal involvement in security systems and social dynamics of the country.

India’s presence in Afghanistan, as a major development and civilian reconstruction partner, has been on the back of American security in the region. A withdrawal of US forces would put India in the same precarious position it was in when the Soviets withdrew from Afghanistan.

India’s role in Afghanistan in the past has been focussed on the development and aid aspect of the security-development complex in Afghanistan. Infrastructure development, capacity building, humanitarian aid among other initiatives have been the focus. As New Delhi has been wary of putting boots on the ground, India enjoys a great deal of goodwill in the country.

Also read: Taliban start diplomatic outreach after US deal on Afghanistan

Well-received community engagement efforts of the Indian government in the country has led to more investment towards development of Afghanistan. Not only does Indian aid perceived as a positive factor in a fragile state marred by decades of violence and conflict, it is hailed by the Afghan government and the international community.

While there are debates about the effectiveness of Indian aid in Afghanistan, the result of Indian aid is rather ambiguous. Questions linger around how effective Indian aid is in gaining political capital and clout in the political sphere. With other countries in the geopolitical vicinity wanting a hotline to the Afghan government’s ear, it is essential that India’s interaction with Afghanistan evolve and ramp up.

Apparently, China too wants a piece of the pie and has since invested in several infrastructure projects including a 4.4 billion USD copper extraction project and railway development projects in the war-ravaged country. India and China being the biggest players on the ground will be battling it out for the Afghan government’s friendship so as to improve their domestic economies and to strengthen their geopolitical hold in the region.

Also read: India reacts cautiously to peace deal between US and Taliban

However, after Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian PM Narendra Modi met in Wuhan in 2018, both sides shifted to an outcome-driven approach from a zero-sum dynamic when it comes to their bilateral relations in Afghanistan. This could prove helpful in the long-run.

Nonetheless, India’s present aid and development policy needs to be rethought considering fresh developments and future possibilities. US forces in the region are scheduled to be withdrawn in 14 months if the Taliban sticks to its end of the bargain.

Instability is the most likely outcome of the American withdrawal and the Taliban regaining power is not a given. China does not have a very clear stand on Afghan security but India’s support for an Afghan-led and controlled peace process has been long standing.

However, with insecurity on the horizon, one cannot be sure of the Afghan government’s capabilities to handle a fragile security situation. With a rather weak security umbrella on the ground, carrying out larger development projects or continuing with present efforts might hit rough waters.

Security threats continue to linger in the state and the dynamics of Indian engagement in Afghan development may be impacted as a result and hence, New Delhi might need to rethink its aid and development efforts in the country, and how it is going to engage itself on the security front considering a new reality in the region.

India’s investments and interests in the country have been significant. If Afghanistan is bound to be critical to Indian foreign policy, India should be better prepared to protect its interests as soon as possible considering an impending American withdrawal.