A dynasty in decline: Can JD(S) bounce back from the brink?

The resounding defeat of the Janata Dal (Secular) in the Channapatna byelection in Karnataka has raised serious questions about the future of the regional party. Will it face extinction? Is it at a crossroads? Will it lose relevance? Can it revive itself and reclaim the prominence it once enjoyed? Should it look for long-term benefits or settle for short-term gains as an alliance partner of the Bharatiya Janata Party? Will it stay united, or will its MLAs defect? 

The bypoll, which saw a fierce electoral battle, has stunned JD(S) not just because of the defeat but due to the sheer margin—over 25,000 votes. This loss resonates deeply as the candidate was Nikhil Kumar, son of former chief minister and current Union Minister H D Kumaraswamy, and a key figure in the next generation of JD(S) leadership. This is the third consecutive defeat for Nikhil, a blow not just to him but to the family led by the JD(S) patriarch and former prime minister H D Deve Gowda. Gowda himself campaigned for a week, urging voters to “hold Nikhil’s hand”. The trouncing adds to a string of setbacks for the Gowda family in the last seven months, coming after the arrest of two grandsons—Prajwal and Suraj, both sons of H D Revanna—on allegations of involvement in sex scandals and Prajwal’s defeat in the Hassan Lok Sabha election.

The Channapatna setback is especially jarring given that the constituency has twice been represented by Kumaraswamy, who won in 2018 and 2023, defeating C P Yogeeshwara, then a BJP candidate. In 2023, Kumaraswamy secured a margin of nearly 16,000 votes. But Yogeeshwara, who joined Congress just before filing his nomination, has reversed this by crushing Nikhil with a margin of over 25,000 votes—the largest in the constituency since 1994.

This is also Nikhil’s third straight defeat in the Vokkaliga heartland of Mandya and Ramanagara districts, long considered the Gowda family strongholds. His earlier losses include the 2019 Mandya LS polls and the 2023 Ramanagara Assembly polls. The Channapatna bypoll was necessitated after Kumaraswamy vacated the seat following his victory in the Mandya Lok Sabha election. 

Compared to 2018, when it won 37 seats, the JD(S) seats were reduced by nearly half in 2023, when it won only 19 seats. The 2023 poll drubbing shrunk its presence in the Assembly even in the key Vokkaliga-dominated districts. Its defeat in Channapatna means that it has no representation from Ramanagara district in the Assembly. A closer look at its representation from the Vokkaliga-dominated districts highlights this decline: Mandya (1), Ramanagara (0), Hassan (4), Chikmagalur (0), Tumakuru (2), Shivamogga (1), Chikkaballapur (1), Kolar (2), Bengaluru Urban (0), Bengaluru Rural (0), Mysuru (2), and Chamarajanagar (1).

The BJP-JD(S) alliance for the 2024 general elections altered Karnataka’s political landscape. The partnership helped the saffron party bag 19 seats and JD(S) two out of 28. The alliance led the BJP to win some of the seats where Vokkaliga votes mattered. This meant that JD(S) successfully transferred its votes to the BJP. One such seat was Bengaluru Rural, where BJP candidate and noted heart surgeon Dr C N Manjunath defeated D K Suresh, sitting MP and Deputy Chief Minister D K Shivakumar’s brother.

The Channapatna bypoll became a prestige battle between Kumaraswamy and Shivakumar. Both left no stone unturned to wrest the constituency, which has seen as many as nine elections to the Assembly seat since 1999, the maximum from any seat in the state in the last 25 years. 

The DK brothers had to avenge their LS thrashing. The no-holds-barred battle was also because Gowda-Kumaraswamy and Shivakumar were vying to assert their leadership over the Vokkaliga community. The state Congress president, instrumental in bringing Yogeeshwara to the party and was the chief strategist— his own Kanakapura constituency neighbours Channapatna —had the last laugh. And how!

If, over the years, the JD(S) strength has drastically reduced, the party leadership must find out the reasons for the same, admit its mistakes and shortcomings, and work to plug the gaps—whether it is ideological, man-management, winning over the party workers, or, more importantly, regaining the confidence of the people.

Instead of making this introspection, if the party leaders point fingers at a particular community (Muslims) for their loss, like Nikhil did (even Kumaraswamy had made a similar statement some time ago), the organisation will go nowhere and continue to slide on a downhill spiral. Does Nikhil mean the others—the backward classes, Dalits, etc.—voted en bloc for him? Perhaps even the Vokkaligas may not have voted fully for the JD(S). It is not the responsibility of the voters to save a particular party from death but that of the leaders and workers. It is the responsibility of the party to win people over. 

Coming back to the question of the future of JD(S), it is but natural that questions do arise over the relevance of the party amid fierce competition; this defeat is a massive setback, like that of the 2023 Assembly result. But then any party that has won over 52 lakh votes (out of a total of 3.91 crore-odd) as in the 2023 polls cannot be expected to face extinction, at least in the near future. It cannot be written off or wished away. Yes, JD(S) is at a crossroads; it has to revisit its policies and principles; there may be demands to rethink its alliance with BJP, among others. Overall, the party has a long way to tread to win back the confidence of the cross-section of the society.

(The writer is a senior journalist)