H-1B visas: A global war for brains

It has never been easier to immigrate to the United States than it is today – if you are a farmer.

Last month, the Trump administration eased visa rules for agricultural workers, streamlining their paperwork and allowing them to work for lower wages. These latest rules came shortly after Trump had imposed a mammoth $100,000 fee on H-1B visas issued to high-skilled workers.

On all counts, the two policy proclamations are both startling and counterintuitive. For decades, even when it has cracked down on illegal immigrants and turned away low-skilled labourers for fears that they would take American jobs, America has always tried to attract high-skilled talent. In 2019, for instance, Trump said that he intends to “stop illegal immigration” and “protect American wages” while” [attracting] the best and brightest from all around the world.” On the campaign trail last year, he even suggested that all foreign college graduates should be given a green card with their diplomas.

The new visa policies signal a reversal on all fronts. According to US government data, at least 40% of farm workers in the country are illegal immigrants. Farmer groups argue that through the new rules, Trump is effectively reducing farm wages while replacing American workers with cheap foreign labour.

At first glance, this flies in the face of politics. Lower-skilled workers have tended to vote more loyally for Trump over the past decade. Why would Trump then increase competition against them while getting rid of multi-degree Silicon Valley engineers?

The reason is fairly simple: Many Trump voters would love to work for Google or Amazon. Nobody wants to work on a farm. In the wake of Trump’s crackdown on illegal immigrants early this year, many farm workers fled, leaving crops to rot across the country. Farms in places that voted overwhelmingly for Trump have copped losses and shut down after owners struggled to find workers.

While America cracks down on its own universities, researchers, scientists, and high-skilled engineers, the rest of the world has travelled in the opposite direction. This is quite unlike the past. When Trump came to power eight years ago, his ultranationalist agenda had inspired copycat movements across much of the West. In Britain, France, the Netherlands, Germany, and elsewhere, far-right, anti-immigrant parties gained ground amid widespread scepticism toward foreigners. Visa rules were tightened across much of the developed world.

Now, those countries and others are vying for the brains fleeing visa uncertainty in America. In September, New Zealand and Britain announced easier work permit pathways for high-skilled workers. This week, Canada followed that up with a plan to create special visas for H-1B workers from the US. Even China has joined the race: In August, Beijing announced an unprecedented K visa, which would allow science graduates to live and work in the country without an employer sponsor.

These shifts could have lasting strategic and economic consequences. Take demographics. According to current UN population projections, almost all major powers around the world are expected to age and decline by the middle of this century – including China, India, Brazil, and all of Western Europe. By contrast, the US is expected to remain young as its working-age population grows well into the year 2100. So far, these promising projections have been enabled purely by immigration: In 2018, about 78% of foreign-born Americans were between the ages of 18 and 64, while only 59% of US-born Americans were.

In no small measure, skills add to this advantage. Both China and Europe have been keen to attract skilled graduates from US universities, all of whom can help them shape the evolving frontiers of the global AI economy. Will America cede that competitive edge?

The writer is a student of all things global and, self-confessedly, master of none, notwithstanding his Columbia Master’s, a stint with the UN and with monarchs in the Middle East.

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.