A new gateway in the Northeast

Those in Delhi often focus on the big picture: the US-China strategic rivalry, for example, and India’s likely role in shaping it to its advantage. It is only when one moves out of the capital – as this author did recently – to spend a few fruitful days in the Northeast that one grasps the true picture of changes on the ground involving the people of states like Assam and Meghalaya due to their burgeoning engagement with Japan.

The opportunity to deliver a lecture on India’s Act East Policy at the Indian Institute of Technology, Guwahati, followed by participation in the fifth India-Japan intellectual conclave on ‘Co-Creating Ecosystems for Change’ allowed this writer to assess how Japan’s role in the Northeast and the Bay of Bengal region is turning out to be a gamechanger. It could accelerate economic development, moulding the region’s geoeconomics and geopolitics. But some concerns remain.

Asian Confluence, a Shillong-based think tank, hosted the two-day conference that turned out to be an enriching experience for many Japanese and Indian participants. Building on its past four additions, the conclave trained arc lights on ‘Kizuna’ – a deep heart-to-heart connection binding Japan and India. It is an arresting blend of strong emotion and pragmatism encompassing high-tech innovation, logistics, connectivity, and people-to-people cooperation.

Simply put, Japan is drawn to the Northeast by the bonds of Buddhism, shared history, and ethnic commonality. The Northeast and its neighbourhood comprising Bhutan, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Myanmar have placed hopes on benefiting from Japan’s economic assistance, trade, technology, investment, and enterprise. Demographic convergence where Japan’s ageing population can be assisted by the youth, for example, Meghalaya, where 30% of the people are classified as youth (15-29 years), came into sharp focus at this dialogue.

Japanese Ambassador Ono Keiichi highlighted his government’s adherence to the ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific’ concept to argue convincingly that enhancing connectivity and building industrial value chains in the Bay of Bengal region is essential for creating “a future of shared growth, mutual benefit, and a stable society.” In this context, much attention was accorded to Tata Electronics’ collaboration with Tokyo Electron to build a semiconductor assembly and testing plant in Jagiroad near Guwahati. Experts have felt that it could trigger a semiconductor “revolution” in India, much like what Suzuki’s “people’s car” achieved in the automotive sector in the 1980s. Notably, the Tata project is likely to create over 27,000 new jobs.

Underscoring the Northeast’s role in the overall architecture of India-Japan relations, Jaideep Mazumdar, Secretary in the Ministry of External Affairs, observed that ”the Northeast is not just a region; it is a gateway” to Southeast Asia. He expressed India’s welcome to Japanese businesses, academia, youth, and cultural groups to explore the rich tapestry of India, especially the Northeast. He also voiced the government’s support for strengthening various programmes of training and skill development through the greater involvement of Japanese companies.

In this larger context, the Chief Ministers of Assam and Meghalaya made substantial presentations at the conclave. Himanta Biswa Sarma, Chief Minister of Assam, spoke about his recent visit to Japan, the possibility of establishing a Japanese industrial township in Assam, and invited a Japanese delegation to the Assam 2.0 investment and infrastructure summit to be held later this month. Conrad Sangma, Chief Minister of Meghalaya, on the other hand, attached priority to agricultural cooperation and skill development. He spoke of the goal to train 3,000 nurses from Meghalaya for deployment in Japan in the coming years. “We are not a big state,” he said, stressing, “We will do a few things, but we will do them well.”

Call for normalcy

Voices from the neighbourhood of the Northeast seemed stifled at the conclave, but there were two exceptions. The consul-general of Bhutan pointed to the relevance of the Gelephu Mindfulness City project, and a former Bangladesh diplomat emphasised the indispensability of India-Bangladesh cooperation despite “the hiccups of history.” Generally, participants seemed reluctant to talk openly about how the strained relations between Delhi and Dhaka since the ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in August 2024 have caused considerable anxiety to Japan. Clearly, as a friend of both India and Bangladesh, Japan would wish for normalcy to return soon.

Likewise, various proponents of regional connectivity have been concerned over the deepening political and security crisis in Myanmar. Its continuing fragmentation has been taking a big toll on the stability and economic prospects of the Northeast and the surrounding region. Perhaps Japan, India, and Malaysia, as the ASEAN Chair, could deliberate on crafting the way out of this quagmire.

Broadly, India’s Northeastern states have been moving ahead on the path of political stability, social harmony, and economic development, but Manipur has been a notable exception. With the exit of Chief Minister N Biren Singh, the state may re-discover a path to stability and peace. Besides, India’s Bangladesh and Myanmar policies need serious introspection and consultation with the relevant experts. The perception that nothing is workable should be resisted.

As Indra Mani Pandey, Secretary General of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), mentioned in a video message at the conclave, this regional grouping is especially significant for the Northeastern states of India as they share land or maritime boundaries with five BIMSTEC member-states: Bangladesh, Bhutan, Myanmar, Nepal, and Thailand. Forging close regional cooperation will be beneficial to them all. This message resonated well with the participants of the conference.

(The writer is a Distinguished Fellow at Gateway House and a former ambassador of India to Myanmar)