<p>While India is preparing to deal with the disruptions in steel, textiles, and pharmaceuticals being imposed by the Trump administration, a quiet yet potentially deeper casualty lies in fisheries, which needs equal attention. On August 27, the United States imposed a reciprocal tariff on Indian goods, lifting the headline duty on many exports to 50 per cent. When combined with existing anti-dumping and countervailing duties on frozen shrimp (about 2.5 per cent and 5.8 per cent), the effective levy on Indian shrimp shipments now exceeds 58 per cent.</p>.<p>The US is India’s largest market for frozen shrimp – it imported 311,948 tonnes worth $2.68 billion in 2024-25, almost half of India’s total shrimp exports. Such a steep tariff shock risks an immediate fall in shipments and a sharp squeeze on coastal livelihoods. Shrimp is the backbone of India’s seafood trade, contributing $5.17 billion, or nearly 70 per cent of total seafood export earnings, last year. Overall, India exported $7.45 billion worth of marine products, with the US accounting for over a third. This concentration now looks like a vulnerability.</p>.<p>Industry analysts, including Crisil, expect shrimp exports to fall by 15-18 per cent this fiscal. A significant tariff disparity may force the US buyers to shift to competitors such as Vietnam and Ecuador, which enjoy a tariff advantage due to lower duties. Additionally, as per the joint statement, China, placed on the protective side by its temporary trade accommodation until November with Washington, could edge into India’s share if such deals become permanent.</p>.<p>Seafood exports are broadly grouped as captured and cultured, and shrimp is the principal constituent of the latter. The tariff strain is more visible in India’s aquaculture hubs, such as Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Gujarat, Odisha, and Tamil Nadu. Andhra Pradesh, which accounts for nearly three-fourths of national output, is showing signs of strain as exporters scale back shipments. In Odisha, shrimp exports of about $170 million last year came mainly from small and medium farmers. Since many rely on leased land and bank finance, even a modest dip in exports could push them into debt stress.</p>.<p>The aggregate numbers conceal fragile livelihoods. India’s fisheries and aquaculture sector supports 14-16 million people, and shrimp aquaculture is its most labour-intensive segment. Processing plants in coastal hubs employ thousands of women who are staring at the loss of their livelihood in peeling and grading. For nearly half a million shrimp farmers across the eastern and southern seaboard, as well as for allied entrepreneurs in feed, medicines, and machinery, Washington’s tariff decisions translate into reduced pond stockings, shrinking margins, and mounting anxiety. The impact is felt locally on pay packets, loan repayments, and food security.</p>.<p><strong>Structural changes</strong></p>.<p>The immediate priority is to prevent a collapse of production capacity. During COVID-19, India had offered liquidity support, credit guarantees, and loan rollovers to keep MSMEs alive until demand returned. A similar targeted package, including concessional credit, interest subvention, and transitional income support for shrimp growers, can cushion the blow. Export credit guarantees and short-term relief through the Pradhan Mantri Matsya Sampada Yojana (PMMSY) could keep smaller farms and processors from shutting down. Extension of MNREGA support for women labourers would ease household pressure. Such transitory support can be seen as an investment in resilience.</p>.<p>The current external shock necessitates the strategy of building resilience by furthering structural reforms in India’s blue sector. While negotiating tariff relief or exclusions with the US is one route, diversification is essential as a long-term strategy. The European Union, Japan, and West Asia are promising markets that require sustained trade promotion. At home, domestic demand for shrimp can be expanded through nutrition schemes, institutional procurement, and support for value-added products. The domestic policy framework has also begun to move in a supportive direction. The recent GST rate cut on fish oils, fish extracts, and prepared or preserved fish and shrimp products from 12 per cent to 5 per cent is a step in the right direction and complements the broader effort to strengthen resilience in the blue economy.</p>.<p>Cluster-based farming with improved hatcheries, better feed, and stronger disease control can lower costs. Investment in cold chains, storage, and port logistics will improve competitiveness.</p>.<p>India’s blue economy, long hailed as a growth frontier, now faces a stress test. Tariff turbulence has made clear that resilience cannot mean waiting out the storm. It must mean immediate cushioning for vulnerable farmers and workers, coupled with structural reforms. The short-term and long-term reforms will make Indian aquaculture more competitive and less dependent on any single market. The road will take time, but resilience must mean reform, which is due.</p>.<p><em>(Sashikanta is a faculty member of rural management at XIM University; <br>Gourishankar teaches economics at IIT Kharagpur)</em></p><p>(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.)</p>
<p>While India is preparing to deal with the disruptions in steel, textiles, and pharmaceuticals being imposed by the Trump administration, a quiet yet potentially deeper casualty lies in fisheries, which needs equal attention. On August 27, the United States imposed a reciprocal tariff on Indian goods, lifting the headline duty on many exports to 50 per cent. When combined with existing anti-dumping and countervailing duties on frozen shrimp (about 2.5 per cent and 5.8 per cent), the effective levy on Indian shrimp shipments now exceeds 58 per cent.</p>.<p>The US is India’s largest market for frozen shrimp – it imported 311,948 tonnes worth $2.68 billion in 2024-25, almost half of India’s total shrimp exports. Such a steep tariff shock risks an immediate fall in shipments and a sharp squeeze on coastal livelihoods. Shrimp is the backbone of India’s seafood trade, contributing $5.17 billion, or nearly 70 per cent of total seafood export earnings, last year. Overall, India exported $7.45 billion worth of marine products, with the US accounting for over a third. This concentration now looks like a vulnerability.</p>.<p>Industry analysts, including Crisil, expect shrimp exports to fall by 15-18 per cent this fiscal. A significant tariff disparity may force the US buyers to shift to competitors such as Vietnam and Ecuador, which enjoy a tariff advantage due to lower duties. Additionally, as per the joint statement, China, placed on the protective side by its temporary trade accommodation until November with Washington, could edge into India’s share if such deals become permanent.</p>.<p>Seafood exports are broadly grouped as captured and cultured, and shrimp is the principal constituent of the latter. The tariff strain is more visible in India’s aquaculture hubs, such as Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Gujarat, Odisha, and Tamil Nadu. Andhra Pradesh, which accounts for nearly three-fourths of national output, is showing signs of strain as exporters scale back shipments. In Odisha, shrimp exports of about $170 million last year came mainly from small and medium farmers. Since many rely on leased land and bank finance, even a modest dip in exports could push them into debt stress.</p>.<p>The aggregate numbers conceal fragile livelihoods. India’s fisheries and aquaculture sector supports 14-16 million people, and shrimp aquaculture is its most labour-intensive segment. Processing plants in coastal hubs employ thousands of women who are staring at the loss of their livelihood in peeling and grading. For nearly half a million shrimp farmers across the eastern and southern seaboard, as well as for allied entrepreneurs in feed, medicines, and machinery, Washington’s tariff decisions translate into reduced pond stockings, shrinking margins, and mounting anxiety. The impact is felt locally on pay packets, loan repayments, and food security.</p>.<p><strong>Structural changes</strong></p>.<p>The immediate priority is to prevent a collapse of production capacity. During COVID-19, India had offered liquidity support, credit guarantees, and loan rollovers to keep MSMEs alive until demand returned. A similar targeted package, including concessional credit, interest subvention, and transitional income support for shrimp growers, can cushion the blow. Export credit guarantees and short-term relief through the Pradhan Mantri Matsya Sampada Yojana (PMMSY) could keep smaller farms and processors from shutting down. Extension of MNREGA support for women labourers would ease household pressure. Such transitory support can be seen as an investment in resilience.</p>.<p>The current external shock necessitates the strategy of building resilience by furthering structural reforms in India’s blue sector. While negotiating tariff relief or exclusions with the US is one route, diversification is essential as a long-term strategy. The European Union, Japan, and West Asia are promising markets that require sustained trade promotion. At home, domestic demand for shrimp can be expanded through nutrition schemes, institutional procurement, and support for value-added products. The domestic policy framework has also begun to move in a supportive direction. The recent GST rate cut on fish oils, fish extracts, and prepared or preserved fish and shrimp products from 12 per cent to 5 per cent is a step in the right direction and complements the broader effort to strengthen resilience in the blue economy.</p>.<p>Cluster-based farming with improved hatcheries, better feed, and stronger disease control can lower costs. Investment in cold chains, storage, and port logistics will improve competitiveness.</p>.<p>India’s blue economy, long hailed as a growth frontier, now faces a stress test. Tariff turbulence has made clear that resilience cannot mean waiting out the storm. It must mean immediate cushioning for vulnerable farmers and workers, coupled with structural reforms. The short-term and long-term reforms will make Indian aquaculture more competitive and less dependent on any single market. The road will take time, but resilience must mean reform, which is due.</p>.<p><em>(Sashikanta is a faculty member of rural management at XIM University; <br>Gourishankar teaches economics at IIT Kharagpur)</em></p><p>(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.)</p>
