AI could have been one of these things first

Imagine the world in 2030, where 99 per cent of new job openings have vanished to AI. For India’s 500 million youth (15-29) already facing 15% unemployment, this isn’t abstract.

Imagine the world in 2030, where 99 per cent of new job openings have vanished to AI. Roman Yampolskiy, an AI safety researcher, outlines this grim possibility: superintelligent systems take over everything from coding to caregiving, leaving universal basic income (UBI) as the only lifeline amid mass despair. For India’s 500 million youth (15-29) already facing 15% unemployment, this isn’t abstract. It’s a ticking time bomb on entry-level roles in data entry and customer service, already down 15% amid AI adoption – expect 45% of software engineering jobs to soon be impacted.

‘I could have been/One of these things first’.

An unlikely hero emerges: the village god-boy. A viral X video this week captures a scrawny kid in a sweaty baniyan flailing wildly on a threadbare mat, a village baba channelling the divine – eyes bulging, arms snatching at spirits, surrounded by a cluster of wide-eyed aunties in sun-faded sarees. Commenters pile on: ‘Clever little scammer, playing the god card for free biryani,’ or ‘Village con artist, outsmarting the lot with zero schooling.’ It’s raw entrepreneurial grit: preying on piety for alms, feasts, and village clout – a sleazy gig, perhaps, but one that no AI bot will rugpull.

‘I could have been a sailor, could have been a cook/ A real live lover, could have been a book’.

Nick Drake’s 1970 lament, ‘One of these things first’, tallies unlived lives. It seems pretty apt for India’s youth, as they will soon scroll the job boards only to find bots filling all the gaps. Then there’s Samuel Shadrach, a 24-year-old IIT Delhi and Berkeley machine learning graduate. In September, he was on a hunger strike. His demand: US-China treaties to freeze superintelligent AI, averting extinction risks. Tied to sit-ins at Anthropic in San Francisco and blockades at DeepMind in London, Shadrach invoked satyagraha – fittingly timed for the recent Gandhi Jayanti.

Both the village kid’s hoax and this educated elite’s satyagraha are homegrown Indian ripostes to the AI juggernaut, but only the god-boy’s charade stands a prayer of paying the bills in the long run – irony of ironies, the illiterate outsmarts the IITs because AI devours the diploma’d.

‘I could have been your pillar, could have been your door/ I could have stayed beside you, could have stayed for more’.

Experts amplify the alarm. Eliezer Yudkowsky envisions that just a handful of jobs will endure in as little as three years: trainers, ethicists, perhaps plumbers. Tristan Harris cites that 13% of entry-level creative and admin roles have already been erased. Geoffrey Hinton, AI’s ‘godfather’, predicts massive unemployment and inequality spikes. The World Economic Forum tallies 92 million global displacements by 2030, with any new roles emerging incapable of offsetting losses. Anthropic’s Dario Amodei warns of 20% unemployment surges as white-collar entry jobs are slashed.

‘I could be here and now/ I would be, I should be, but how?’

Our own country’s projections, however, remain rosy. They seem to side more with the village baba than the IIT satyagrahi. NITI Aayog’s September report claims AI will contribute $500-600 billion to GDP by 2035, while Goldman Sachs India eyes 2.3 million AI-specific openings by 2027, and EY India a 2.61% productivity gain by 2030.

By contrast, Walmart, the USA’s single-largest private employer, says AI will ‘literally change every job’, with the company’s 2.1 million global headcount staying flat over the next three years despite robust growth plans, as automation eliminates new roles. The pattern repeats across the top four US employers – Walmart, Amazon, Allied Universal, and Accenture – all pouring billions into AI instead of headcount expansion. But we expect the opposite from Indian employers?

These flawed forecasts underpin inadequate plans that leave India unprepared for the scale of unemployment ahead. Skill India 2.0 targets 100 million reskills by 2030 with AI modules, and the $1.2-billion IndiaAI Mission funds transition centres and e-Shram wage-loss pilots. UBI trials in Madhya Pradesh, reaching 2,000 people, show modest well-being gains. But nationwide UBI would cost $1 trillion annually – measures too small and scattered to counter a billion Indians at risk in a system betting on growth that may never materialise.

The disconnect spells outright tragedy. If youth joblessness climbs over 65%, as pessimistic forecasts suggest for educated segments, the fallout will be severe: waves of protests, mass migrations, surging crime, and radicalisation among a generation stripped of purpose.

‘I could have been/ One of these things first’.

Nick Drake’s lyrics press the point. In a decade, when IIT whiz-kids hawking code to chatbots are soon to be begging for scraps, that village god-boy might be the real visionary, divining donations from the devout while the rest of us prompt our way to oblivion.

The writer, as Dr Jekyll is a Professor of Philosophy, Politics and Law, author and editor of over 20 books and counting, and as Mr Hyde, one of India’s top-ranking Ironman triathletes.

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.