Allies, old and new, gravitate towards BJP

The BJP is expanding its monopoly in the Hindi belt states by taking over small parties or steering them in a direction useful to the national party.

The potential alliance between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Naveen Patnaik-led Biju Janata Dal (BJD), which governs Odisha, has a bigger impact than the state’s 21 MPs elected to the Lok Sabha. It can set a new template for Centre\State relations in the age where the Narendra Modi-led Union government is accused of violating principles of federalism. 

Simultaneously, it also raises questions about whether oppositional politics as we know it is coming to an end in parts of India. It is indeed an odd spectacle when ruling parties merge with the main Opposition parties. In Odisha, the BJP is the main Opposition. Likewise, the main opposition party in Tripura, the Tipra Motha, has just joined the BJP-led state government.

Simultaneously, there are straws in the wind in other parts of India that suggest the BJP expanding its monopoly in the Hindi belt states by taking over small parties or steering them in a direction useful to the national party. In Uttar Pradesh, three small parties/leaders representing separate castes have joined the Yogi Adityanath government. The March 5 Cabinet expansion included the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), which is traditionally believed to draw support from the Jat community of western Uttar Pradesh; the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) led by Om Prakash Rajbhar, whose Rajbhar caste has a presence in parts of east Uttar Pradesh, and; Dara Singh Chouhan, the OBC leader from the BJP.

The swearing-in of the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government in 1998, which this author covered, was a modest ceremony but a transitional moment in Indian politics. The moment was defined not just by the BJP but many coalition partners: Ramakrishna Hegde, former Janata Party leader and the first non-Congress Chief Minister of Karnataka was sworn in, as was former Punjab Chief Minister and Shiromani Akali Dal leader Surjit Singh Barnala.

Two junior ministers who took oath that day were Nitish Kumar and Naveen Patnaik, and both would later strengthen their respective political parties. In 2024, over a quarter century later, both Kumar and Patnaik are long-reigning chief ministers of Bihar and Odisha respectively. Also, both leaders are currently in the news for defining the narrative before the general elections by coming into arrangements with the BJP.

The Vajpayee-led NDA in 1999 would be the first coalition government at the Centre to complete its term. Believe it or not, Trinamool Congress leader Mamata Banerjee too was sworn in that year. She had not yet defeated the Communists in West Bengal, and was charting an identity that was distinct from the Congress, the party she left in 1997. The Vajpayee coalition was, therefore, truly federal, and also included the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK; for one year) and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) from Tamil Nadu, even as the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) offered outside support.

The Narendra Modi-led BJP that came to power in 2014 had two characteristics. It brought the BJP into the era of single-party rule, and over time the traditional allies departed. This included the Shiv Sena led by the Thackeray family, the Shiromani Akali Dal, and Nitish Kumar (though two months ago he went back to the NDA fold).

Till January, the BJP’s path had seemed solitary, and it was presumed that the push for a third term for Modi was to be built around the leader, the cadre, and the party, while the Opposition was supposed to have built on the arithmetic of alliance politics. The reverse has now happened.

As the Opposition has delayed, fumbled, missed opportunities, and its messaging has been all over the place, it’s the BJP that is picking up allies. Two of these allies, the Janata Dal (United) and the RLD, first threw their lot in with the I.N.D.I.A. bloc, but once the delays and contradictions kicked in, both parties bolted to the NDA.

It is debatable as to what will be the fate of these smaller parties that are part of the NDA. The RLD had lost to the BJP in the last two Lok Sabha elections. Now it would win two seats at the mercy of the BJP, but its autonomy is likely all but over. It can, therefore, be forecast that the RLD is an asset that would soon be absorbed into the monolith that is today’s BJP.

Nitish Kumar, meanwhile, remains Chief Minister in Bihar, but his support base has shrunk. This happened most visibly in the 2020 Assembly elections when the BJP encircled its own ally, the JD(U), to ensure that it got the larger number of seats. The BJP, allegedly, also supported independents and splinter parties to bring down Kumar’s numbers, even as the BJP/RSS cadre were believed to have occupied the structures of the Chirag Paswan-led Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), to curb Kumar’s influence. Among the NDA allies, the BJP emerged the larger party, and Kumar switched over to the Opposition’s side — and in January returned to the NDA.

Today, the BJP is in better health in Bihar than the JD(U). A similar condition ails the Eknath Shinde-led faction of the Shiv Sena that is in power in Maharashtra. As seat-sharing talks proceed, there is speculation that instability/infighting within the Shinde faction could eventually lead to further splits and even these rebel leaders being subsumed by the BJP. The Shinde faction is increasingly losing its bargaining power within the NDA in Maharashtra.

The Vajpayee coalition was an inevitability as no party had the numbers for single-party rule. Vajpayee also had the temperament to pull this off. The coalitions now being forged as Modi’s second term ends, is about a single party dominating others, through money, fiscal policies, and enforcement agencies, to the extent that many find it easier to go with the BJP than to resist it. The Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is a case in point that seems to have found safety in rendering itself dysfunctional. H D Deve Gowda’s Janata Dal (Secular) has also found safety in the BJP’s embrace.

Depending on how the numbers stack up after the general elections, it’s also worth remembering that parties in the south, such as the DMK, had also allied with the BJP back in the day. In Andhra Pradesh, the TDP, which is the main opposition party in the state, has sought a seat-sharing arrangement with the BJP, while the ruling YSR Congress Party has regularly supported the BJP in Parliament. It’s Tweedledum vs Tweedledee.

(Saba Naqvi is a journalist and author.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.