An untested star, old rivals, and a four-way fight in Tamil Nadu Assembly polls 2026

Elections to the Tamil Nadu Assembly, due in April-May 2026, will be a defining moment for the state in more ways than one. For the first time in decades, Tamil Nadu will see the entry of a popular actor at the peak of his film career into politics. 

Vijay, who commands a massive fan base that cuts across party lines, has already disrupted the state’s political landscape by launching the Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK). His move has prompted the Dravidian majors – the DMK and AIADMK, which have alternatively ruled the state since 1967 -- to begin their election preparations at least 10 months in advance.

The 2026 elections will also likely be remembered for producing, for the first time in many years, an intense four-cornered contest, keeping every player on edge.

The contest will be between the ruling DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA), the AIADMK-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), a possible coalition led by Vijay’s TVK, and the Tamil nationalist party Naam Tamizhar Katchi (NTK), which always contests alone. 

Vijay’s entry is being closely watched, since no film star has succeeded in Tamil Nadu politics after M G Ramachandran and his protégé J Jayalalithaa in the 1970s and 1980s, respectively. 

Even legends like Sivaji Ganesan and Kamal Hassan failed to turn their onscreen popularity into votes, while Vijayakant was the only actor who achieved moderate success in politics. He briefly unsettled the state’s bipolar politics, but his party faltered after allying with the AIADMK in 2011.

The DMK, under Chief Minister M K Stalin, believes it has a strong chance of scripting history by retaining power for the first time since 1971. If achieved, the feat would place Stalin in the league of K Kamaraj, MGR, and Jayalalithaa as leaders who returned to Fort St George, the seat of power of the Tamil Nadu government, for a successive term. A defeat, however, would be a setback, jeopardising the party’s plans to elevate Stalin’s son Udhayanidhi within both the party and the government.

For the AIADMK, the 2026 polls are nothing short of a do-or-die battle. Having suffered defeat in every election held since Jayalalithaa’s death in 2016, the party is under relentless pressure to stage a comeback.

Adding to its woes is Vijay aggressively projecting himself as the primary anti-DMK voice and by NDA allies such as T T V Dhinakaran and O Panneerselvam leaving the alliance, blaming Edappadi K Palaniswami.

A loss would sharpen doubts about Palaniswami’s hold on leadership, especially with the Bharatiya Janata Party and Vijay poised to challenge AIADMK’s dominance. If OPS and TTV join Vijay, their influence over Thevar votes in southern Tamil Nadu could significantly boost his prospects.

Sensing the danger, the AIADMK reportedly approached Vijay for an alliance. However, the actor made it clear that his TVK would only ally with parties willing to accept him as the chief ministerial candidate.

Though TVK has yet to build a robust organisational base at the booth level, and Vijay’s speeches have been criticised as lacking concrete solutions for problems plaguing the state, his entry has already forced the Dravidian majors to recalibrate. His district-wise tours are drawing huge crowds and constant television coverage.

One reason both DMK and AIADMK take Vijay seriously is that internal surveys put TVK’s support at no less than 15%, and higher in some regions. Vijay, seeking to revive the MGR magic, has been eyeing the anti-DMK vote, which has always gone en masse to the AIADMK since its founding in 1972. Vijay has also pitched the 2026 battle as one between TVK and DMK.

Political observers believe Vijay is likely to dent the vote share of almost every party, though the extent of damage remains uncertain. While the split in anti-government votes might help the DMK, the perceived split of the minority votes, which went en masse to the DMK in 2019, 2021, and 2024, could prove costly for the DMK. Vijay is a Christian.

The fourth player, Seeman’s Naam Tamizhar Katchi (NTK), continues to strengthen -- growing from a 1% vote share in 2016 to 8% in 2024. Though not strong enough to win alone, NTK can split the anti-government vote, potentially spoiling AIADMK and TVK’s chances.

“Vijay contesting alone and splitting the anti-DMK and anti-government votes will undoubtedly help the DMK,” senior journalist R Bhagwan Singh told DH. Prof Ramu Mannivannan, former professor of political science at the University of Madras, concurred with Singh, saying Vijay will split votes of the opposition more than the DMK.

“We have to wait to see how his party performs. Much depends on how Vijay emerges and sounds politically close to the elections,” Mannivannan added.

Singh described the 2026 elections as the most unpredictable and complex in recent times due to the entry of the “untested” Vijay. “He draws huge crowds and makes bold claims. While rivals criticise his speeches, the actor believes his fan base will translate into votes,” he said.

Prof Mannivannan said the four-cornered contest in Tamil Nadu will not be merely interesting but will certainly choke BJP’s attempts to make inroads into Tamil Nadu.

“Vijay is currently giving mixed signals, and it remains to be seen how he will channel new voters. If Vijay shows the stamina of a true-blue politician and waits for his turn, he might emerge as a force to reckon with,” he added.

(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.)