Behind a new Great Wall, China poses for global leader role

China released a white paper on its “national security in the new era” on May 12, a day after the Geneva understanding on trade issues with the United States. As the Trump administration has initiated an “isolationist” policy of dismantling its alliance system and alienating its friends and allies, and imposed self-centred trade restrictions, China sees this as a strategic opportunity to chip in as an alternative to the US-led world order.

Ever since the 2017 Chinese Communist Party (CCP) congress injunctions on “moving towards the centre stage” in global and regional orders, China has been assiduously making efforts to assert itself in the neighbourhood and beyond.

The subsequent 20th CCP Congress of 2022 focused excessively on security issues – the current white paper has taken a cue from it.

The Trump administration’s disruptions in the political, economic, and technological orders have provided China with a chance to pitch its authoritarian model as an alternative to the rest of the world.

The white paper states, “China injects centrality and stability into a chaotic and intertwined world”. It also stated that China will “guide the international community to jointly safeguard international security”.

Traditionally, the political regimes in China since Qin Shi Huangdi in 221 BC are loath towards instability, unpredictability, and uncertainty, crushing any dissent ruthlessly. “Heavenly chaos” is anathema to most Chinese political orders, with the current leadership under Xi Jinping doubling down on discordant notes. However, China sees Trump’s disruptions as an opportunity to establish its model of development.

To curb any challenges, the white paper gives a clarion call to “build a new great wall of national security”. It elaborates on several measures to be undertaken to address traditional but mainly non-traditional security challenges to China.

It is thus a departure from the previous ten white papers – issued between 1998 and 2019 – which were focused on military issues. The current white paper does outline China’s perceived threats and elaborate on its intentions for the “rejuvenation” but does not throw light on the military capabilities. To this extent, the white paper loses credibility in not being transparent.

The white paper suggests that China will make efforts at “preventing and controlling the overall risks that may delay, or interrupt the great rejuvenation”. In previous party congresses, China had laid down 2049 as a period to realise “China rejuvenation” which in simple terms includes lands China allegedly “lost” to other countries in the 19th century. According to nationalist Chinese, these “lost” territories include the Russian Far East, Central Asian steppes, Mongolia, Korean Peninsula, Taiwan, the South China Sea, and Arunachal Pradesh. Such irredentist claims of China had already pitched it with its neighbours in internecine conflicts. By invoking these claims once again, China is setting an unsettling neighbourhood, with consequences for long-term instability.

The white paper also mentions that China will protect its overseas interests. As it became the 2nd largest economy, China’s maritime footprint increased with over $4 trillion in exports and imports. Also, in its Belt and Road Initiative and other schemes, China had invested more than $1 trillion abroad, with its more than 36,000 companies, mainly State-owned enterprises, taking the lead.

China is thus setting the stage for overseas deployment of its armed forces as well as paramilitary forces abroad, while its more than two dozen “police stations” abroad are already becoming controversial. The white paper argues that China “does not implement security coercion”. However, by outlining an expansive military modernisation in recent times in conventional and strategic weapons programme, it is exhibiting deterrence levels over the neighbourhood and beyond.

The white paper, at times, is contradictory. For instance, on the one hand, it criticises the US indirectly for “building exclusive small groups” (referring to the Quad or other mechanisms) and on the other, argues that “in defiance of international responsibilities, individual major powers have destroyed their treaties and retreated to undermine global stability”.

Coming two days after the India-Pakistan conflict, in which China actively supported Pakistan diplomatically and militarily, the white paper mentions the unresolved territorial dispute with India and Bhutan more as a reminder. More specifically, it mentions ushering in border security.

India also figures in the white paper as a competitor for the Global South construct. Both India and China have been making their efforts to come closer to the Global South countries with India hosting the “Voice of the Global South” with over 130 countries, while China’s focus has been in the context of its contest with the US.

Despite its aspirations, however, China posing as an alternative to the US has problems, including its inability to provide public goods and services to the international community, the dominance of the authoritarian CCP model and its sectarianism, its irredentist claims, and the lack of structural power and transparency.