Cold war returns to Asia Pacific region

It will be disastrous for China too to engage in a Cold War type confrontation with the US.

A serious cold confrontation has been brewing in the Asia Pacific region raising questions about the viability of economic dynamism in the region in the midst of continuing global recession. The latest in the series of events exemplifying cold confrontation is China’s declaration of an ‘Air Defence Identification Zone’ that sparked almost immediate opposition from the US, Japan and South Korea.

While the US scrambled the nuclear-capable B52 bombers over the zone ignoring Chinese demand for advance intimation, Japan too did so and, in addition, asked its civilian airlines to pay no heed to the Chinese ADIZ requirements. South Korea went a step ahead and declared its own ADIZ to challenge the Chinese decision to set unilateral rules over disputed areas in the East China Sea.

It is implausible that Japan and South Korea would take such steps to defy China without getting green signal from the Obama administration. President Obama, on his part, ordered B52 bombers to be flown over the Chinese ADIZ, but quickly asked his officials to emphasize that the bombers were unarmed! Washington also asked American civilian airlines to obey the new Chinese rules.

What is the rationale behind dual approach of the Obama administration? The answer lies in the US strategy of avoiding any Cold war type confrontation with China, while preventing China from unduly asserting on disputes with American allies or demonstrating its power acquired after unprecedented economic growth and military modernization. The result is a new phenomenon of Cold Confrontation emerging in US-China relationship.

Actually, it will be disastrous for China too to engage in a Cold War type confrontation with the United States. China runs a huge trade surplus in its trade with the United States, Chinese companies have made enormous investments in the US and China possesses massive amount of US treasury bonds. Such economic interdependence prevents Washington and Beijing from walking into the red zone of open confrontation.
Nonetheless, the announcement of ‘pivot to Asia’ strategy by the Obama Administration in late 2011, also known as “rebalancing” strategy, has considerably rankled Chinese new leadership.

This US strategy calls for shifting naval assets from other parts of the world to the Asia Pacific to a ratio of 60:40 and includes redeployment of a few thousands of US marines to Australia. Calling for further strengthening of existing alliances, rebalancing also targets consolidating American ties with new partners, such as India and Vietnam.

Beijing perceives in this shift in Obama’s foreign policy an innate desire of the United States to ‘contain’ the rise of China. The debate in the US about emerging threat from a rising China along with a running debate on relative decline of the US influence around the world have made the Chinese nervous. The existing superpower, in their view, now appears determined to prevent the fast rise of a new superpower that could concretely challenge the Hegemonic global order under the leadership of the United States.

It is China’s fear that has prompted China to periodically flex its muscles and warn America’s allies and strategic partners against cooperating with the American design to curtail the growth of Chinese influence. Declaration of South China Sea as part of China’s ‘core’ national interests, refusal to multilaterally discuss the maritime disputes in South China Sea, fiercely contesting continuing Japanese control over Skenkaku/Diaoyu islands in East China Sea, PLA’s incursions deep into the Indian side of the Line of Actual Control, show of force by sailing the new aircraft carrier, and the recent declaration of a new Air Defence Identification Zone are all indicative of Chinese nervousness over the ‘pivot to Asia’ strategy of the Obama administration.

During the June summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and the US President Barak Obama, China vigorously pushed for a new kid of major power relationship. During a subsequent visit to Washington, the Chinese defence minister called for balancing the ‘rebalancing strategy,’ which in his views, appeared aimed at China.

After all, most of American allies have developed close economic ties with China and any overtly cold war type confrontation will jeopardize the entire economic dynamism and potential of the region and perhaps the world. But the world cannot wish away the cold confrontation brewing in the Asia Pacific region. The US has reiterates its treaty commitments to all its allies whenever China turns assertive. At the same time, it conveys its message to China that Washington would take no position on the disputes.

In times to come, Asian countries, including India, would find it embarrassing at times and difficult at others to manage the Sino-US cold confrontation.

(The writer is chairperson, American Studies Programme, JNU)