Floods are an annual affair for Juran Ali, the 60-year-old farmer in western Assam’s Barpeta district. The flood on the night of June 21 was baffling even for him. “We have seen that the water of the Beki river reaches our courtyard after four-five days of incessant rainfall. This time, the rainfall was so heavy that when we woke up, water had already entered our home,” Ali, a resident of Mohammadpur village told DH from a makeshift camp on a National Highway, about 5-kms away, where about 200 residents had taken shelter after floods rendered them homeless.
According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), Assam received 1,891.9 mm of rainfall between March 1 and June 24, just 347.5 mm less than the annual rainfall the state normally witnesses. The impact of the heavy rainfall was devastating. Till July 13, the state reported 192 deaths (173 in floods, 19 in landslides), over seven lakh people sheltered in relief camps, crops of 2.40 lakh hectares destroyed and over 89 lakh people affected in 34 of the state’s 36 districts; 24,752 houses are damaged fully and 2,34,187 houses partially, according to Assam State Disaster Management Authority. Barpeta, where agriculture is the main source of livelihood, is one of the worst affected districts.
On May 15, sudden heavy rains on the hills of central Assam’s Dima Hasao district also triggered landslides and flash floods and wreaked havoc, particularly in Haflong, a hill station. Two trains were half-buried in debris and at least 10 people died. Rail communication with South Assam, Mizoram, Tripura and parts of Manipur had remained suspended due to breach in at least 60 locations in the 85km stretch of tracks under the Lumding-Badarpur railway section, where the freight movement has now resumed.
Although the downpour has baffled farmers like Ali, experts say this year’s rains are a display of what climate change can do. “Very heavy rainfall in a short period of time is becoming the norm in the region (Northeast) known so far for a continuous light drizzle. Our existing infrastructure is not built to withstand such weather anomalies,” said Rituraj Phukan, a climate activist and founder of Indigenous People’s Climate Justice Forum, an NGO.
Assam was found to be the most vulnerable state by the ‘Climate Vulnerability Assessment for the Indian Himalayan Region Using a Common Framework’ in 2018, prepared by the Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati, Indian Institute of Technology Mandi and the Indian Institute of Science, Bengaluru, under the project ‘Capacity Building on Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment in the States of Indian Himalayan Region’. Assam and Mizoram were considered most vulnerable to climate change during a presentation by the Indian delegation at the 24th UN Climate Change Conference (COP24). Other studies point to water scarcity in future, Phukan said.
A recent study by the Centre for the Study of Science, Technology and Policy (CSTEP), a Bengaluru-based think tank said that climate projections for the north-eastern states at the district level for the period 2021–2050 indicate a warmer and wetter future with an increase in rainfalls, more intense and more frequent.
The study said the summer maximum and the winter minimum temperatures are projected to increase by 1 degree C to 1.5 degree C under the RCP 4.5 scenario and 1 degree C to 2 degree C under the RCP 8.5 scenario. The winter minimum temperature is projected to increase largely by 1 degree C to 1.5 degree C under the RCP 4.5 scenario and 1 degree C to 2 degree C under the RCP 8.5 scenario in a majority of the districts of North-east India. The number of rainy days in all the north-eastern districts is projected to increase by 1 to 24 days under the RCP 4.5 scenario and 1 to 22 days under the RCP 8.5 scenario.
Although the Brahmaputra and its tributaries cause havoc in most parts of Assam, the impact of flooding by Barak in South Assam was more devastating this year. The water that entered Silchar, South Assam’s biggest city, on June 20 kept the city under water for more than a week, snapping power and Internet connectivity.
“On a single day, Silchar received more than 200mm rainfall. The water holding capacity of most rivers has reduced, far lower than it was 30-40 years ago; the open natural sink areas have shrunk -- anthropic needs/greeds, peripheral expansion of Silchar city being the causes,” said Parthankar Choudhury, a professor of environmental science in Assam University, Silchar. Choudhury also blamed destruction of the hills in Barak Valley and in neighbouring Mizoram and Manipur for the aggravating impact. The other factor, he said, was small and medium hydroelectric dams in upstream of the Barak, which release water once they cross the carrying capacity.
Nayan Sharma, an adjunct professor of IIT-Roorkee said the huge loss of forestry and massive soil erosion from watersheds cause continued river bed rise. This has triggered bank erosion, widening channels and generally reduced flood-carrying capacity, said Sharma.
Although the Assam government’s focus has been on the construction and strengthening of the embankments and dykes that provide a barrier, Sharma stressed that the age-old practice of using geo-bags is not sustainable. He suggested that massive soil conservation must be taken up. “This will control flooding to a very large extent and can be supported by low-cost river channel improvements using advanced stream energy harnessing techniques.
As Assam awaits a comprehensive plan to reduce the impacts of climate change, life and livelihoods continue to suffer. After spending five days on the highway, Ali returned home with a 10-member family on June 27 to see his three houses destroyed by flood waters and the crops (paddy) in his fields buried under the sandy soil. “Thousands of acres of cropland has been damaged, houses destroyed and livestock washed away. Many farmers have become landless. Many of them migrate to cities, some even to far-off Kerala, to work in construction sites or mining sites as daily wagers. Children and women are worst affected,” said Rafiqul Islam, a child rights activist in Barpeta. “As many such people shift to other locations and build homes on government land, they are termed as encroachers and evicted by government agencies. Many are even called illegal migrants from Bangladesh. The situation is turning more serious every year,” Islam said.
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