Delhi Assembly Elections 2025 | BJP yet to put AAP on backfoot

Narendra Modi scored a self-goal by declaring that if the BJP was to secure a majority, none of the social welfare scheme started by AAP would be scrapped. This was a tacit acceptance of AAP’s welfare programmes.

The results of Delhi Assembly elections will not only impact the fortunes of the three principal parties in the fray and their leaders, but also cast a shadow on national politics, within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), as well as the Opposition’s I.N.D.I.A. bloc. Before delving into ground reality and framing the political backdrop of these polls, a caveat: No election can be predicted on the basis of the outcome in the one(s) immediately preceding it.

It was erroneously assumed that the Congress and its allies would win the Assembly elections in Haryana and Maharashtra on the basis of the Lok Sabha results when the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) stunningly slipped below the majority mark. Likewise, it would be naïveté to assume that the BJP would regain the city-state because it is on a comeback trail after victories in two states.

In Assembly polls, past numbers matter, especially when accompanied by a consistent trend. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) formed governments consecutively in 2013, 2015, and 2020; the Congress is out of power since December 2013, and the BJP has not been elected since 1998 — the year since when the party has not lost power in Gujarat.

Importantly, in the 2015 and 2020 Vidhan Sabha polls, AAP, besides a vote share of more than 50 per cent, won 67 and 62 seats respectively in a House of 70 legislators. In 2020, the BJP won merely eight seats but its vote share was healthy at 38.5 per cent. It was lower in 2015 – 32.2 per cent vote share and just three seats. The Congress, on other hand, won no seats in both elections. Its vote share too, declined dramatically from 9.7 per cent to 4.3 per cent between these two polls. For either the BJP or the Congress, to make it a tough contest, a massive swing away from AAP is necessary. Given that the Congress remains a distant third force, the BJP’s vote share too must increase significantly to make this a keen contest, and not one-sided affairs like in the previous two polls. 

Since 2013, the electorate in Delhi has followed a pattern: AAP with Arvind Kejriwal at its helm was handed the mandate to run the state government while the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi were the overwhelming choice in parliamentary polls. For instance, in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP led in 52 Assembly segments while winning all seven parliamentary seats. Importantly, AAP and the Congress had an alliance for the parliamentary elections, yet the two managed to lead in only 18 Assembly seats. A similar pattern was seen in the 2019 general elections which the BJP swept. AAP comfortably won the 2020 Assembly polls.

Clearly, the BJP wins massively when Modi is the ‘candidate’ — but fails in swinging the election in favour of the party in Assembly polls. The biggest factor behind this is the failure to project a chief ministerial candidate, a fact being highlighted by AAP. The BJP projected a CM-face in 2015 with Kiran Bedi, but it did not work. Importantly, of the three BJP chief ministers, Sushma Swaraj, under whose charge the party was defeated in 1998, was an ‘outsider’ from Haryana. The other two Delhi CMs of the BJP, Madan Lal Khurana and Sahib Singh Verma, were from Delhi’s traditionally once dominant demographic communities — Punjabi and Jats.

Despite influx of other communities from the 1980s, the BJP failed to project leaders from communities from Uttar Pradesh and Bihar who became dominant groups in several constituencies. This hampers both the BJP and the Congress even today. In contrast, Kejriwal is virtually ‘casteless’ because he did not enter politics via a traditional avenue, but through the all-inclusive anti-corruption movement.

Kejriwal is no longer the chief minister and is unlikely to resume his innings because of the Supreme Court’s stipulations. The court’s order bars him from entering the Chief Minister’s Office and the Delhi Secretariat. Further, he is disallowed from signing official files unless necessary for clearance or approval of the Lieutenant Governor of Delhi, V K Saxena. Although Kejriwal can become CM if he chooses, he will remain one in name only. As a consequence, Atishi is likely to remain chief minister if AAP is re-elected.

But, as far as the voters are concerned, Kejriwal remains the de facto chief minister because Atishi dramatically left his chair vacant when assuming charge. Furthermore, when Kejriwal resigned from the post, he said he would not resume charge the people exonerate him. Even if AAP secures another majority, he is unlikely to precipitate constitutional impasse and instead await the court verdict which is unlikely in near future. The BJP and Modi have so far failed to turn this situation in their favour because like Modi, Kejriwal too promotes himself as a cult-figure and speaks in the third person.

After holding office for 10 consecutive years, AAP could have been hamstrung by anti-incumbent sentiment. But, Modi scored a self-goal by declaring that if the BJP was to secure a majority, its government would not scrap any social welfare scheme started in Kejriwal’s (or Atishi’s) tenure. This was an unspoken acceptance that these schemes are not rewris but effective welfare programmes.

AAP has taken another leaf from the BJP’s playbook: Embracing defectors from other parties and handing out party nominations. These neo-converts to AAP’s social populism include several Muslim leaders and this is likely to ensure that the significant votes from community are cast in its favour, in almost 10 seats where they matter.

So far, the BJP has failed to sully Kejriwal’s reputation despite spending several months in jail on corruption charges. From the public response to his rallies and meetings, it does not appear that the charges in the liquor scam have stuck. Even the ‘seeshmahal’ accusation has been ingeniously sidetracked by AAP’s counter-allegation of major renovations in the prime minister’s residence.

From 2013 onward, it was clear that Modi had met his match in Kejriwal who is adept in using similar tactics. It must be seen if AAP chief continues setting the agenda in Delhi, at least in the Assembly elections.

Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay, a Delhi-based journalist, is author of 'The Demolition, The Verdict and The Temple: The Definitive Book on the Ram Mandir Project'. X: @NilanjanUdwin.