Delhi results have implications for larger federal structure

Embedded in this mandate is a worrying signal about rewards for central overreach and pushing back the rights of Opposition-ruled states.

The result of the Delhi Assembly elections is bad news for the Opposition, and a significant win for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). This is not because of the size of the union territory/state but because the saffron party has managed to defeat another rooted and pugnacious state party.

At the state level, the greater challenge for the BJP has always been contesting against regional forces than the Congress. The big regional players who are in power and who are left in the fray for future contests remain the Trinamool Congress (TMC) in West Bengal, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) in Tamil Nadu.

Both states face elections in 2026. Although Tamil Nadu is still a bigger challenge, one can foresee a similar encircling of the TMC through criminal cases and media narrative. Of course, Delhi is miniscule compared to West Bengal where the TMC has been in power since 2011.

Since the setback in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, when numbers compelled the BJP to revert to the coalition era, the party and the Sangh parivar upped its game in state contests. There is a reversal in the trend of the BJP performing well in national polls and comparatively poorly in state contests. Now the BJP is doing well in state contests after a disappointment in the national polls.

After that wake-up call, the BJP contested sharply in Haryana that was expected to be won by the Congress. The big game-changer, however, was the landslide in Maharashtra at the end of 2024. In that contest, the BJP-led front defeated a coalition of the Congress and two regional parties. The BJP, therefore, paid no political price for splitting regional parties such as the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP).

Indeed, the defeat of AAP in Delhi reinforces the message that there is no price to be paid for political ruthlessness that the BJP displays against opposing parties. Since Narendra Modi’s ascent in New Delhi, AAP had inflicted two historic defeats on the BJP in the national capital. This mandate that comes after cases against the entire top AAP leadership, their incarceration plus the passage of laws (being challenged in Supreme Court) that effectively denied AAP authority over bureaucrats in the national capital.

Embedded in this mandate, therefore, is a worrying signal about rewards for central overreach and pushing back the rights of Opposition-ruled states. This has implications for the larger federal structure.

To come this far, however, in prevailing upon Opposition-ruled states, the BJP has had to rejig its position on what Prime Minister Narendra Modi once dismissed at “revdis”. In his third term as PM, he is embracing direct cash transfers and in the Delhi contest, women were promised cash of Rs 2,500 a month, more than AAP’s promise of Rs 2,100. AAP had a governance model that will now be unravelled in Delhi as the BJP would seek to leave its own imprint.

Between the stories of the BJP and AAP, lies the small but significant tale of the Congress that won zero seats, but pulled enough votes in close contests to ensure the defeat of AAP. One such seat was New Delhi that Arvind Kejriwal lost narrowly as the Congress’ Sandeep Dixit pulled a few thousand votes. But the increase in vote share of the Congress was dismal.

Still, there is a view that the destruction of regional forces is in the long term good for the Congress. This can also be countered with the argument that it’s a case of cutting the nose to spite the face. Either way, the so-called idea of an opposition coalition seems more and more irrelevant.

In terms of ground strategy, the BJP modified its game in Delhi and the Union Budget that gave tax relief to the middle class is also believed to have swung the vote for the national party. The BJP was pretty determined to beat AAP, and did in the end deliver a blow to the smartest political start-up in contemporary times.

(Saba Naqvi is a journalist and author.)

Delhi assembly elections 2025 results | Get all latest updates here

Delhi assembly elections 2025 results | Get constituency-wise details here

Delhi Assembly Election 2025 | The Delhi Assembly Elections saw a fierce contest between AAP and BJP, while Congress despite its best attempts failed to make a mark. The saffron party is all set to make a comeback in the national capital after almost three decades as AAP chief Kejriwal has accepted the people's verdict and looks to be part of a constructive opposition. Reactions from all quarters are pouring in as BJP celebrates its first electoral win in 2025, with Bihar polls slated to take place later this year. Check live updates and track the latest coverage, live news, in-depth opinions, and analyses only on Deccan Herald.

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