Dilemmas in India’s incremental march to fifth-gen fighters

The very public nature of the tragic Tejas fighter aircraft crash at the recent Dubai Air Show, costing the Indian Air Force (IAF) pilot his life, also hit a raw national nerve in India. One that carries a burning desire to showcase the country’s growing technological and industrial prowess to the world. In Tejas’s case, it’s a 40-year process of trials and tribulations that seems close to bearing fruit on that collective desire. However, the geopolitical tables India so wishes to exert its growing socio-economic influence on have long moved on to the next frontier of military aviation.

The generation gap

‘Survivability’ is the overarching criterion to determine a fighter jet’s evolutionary ‘generation’. The LCA-Tejas programme’s technological paradigm (including the upcoming Mk1A and futuristic Mk2 variants) is considered to be in the 4.0-4.5 range of fighter jet generation nomenclature. For reference, India’s Russian-origin and domestically manufactured Su-30MKI planes belong to the fourth generation. French-origin Rafales are classified as 4.5.

In comparison, the United States (Boeing’s F-22 ‘Raptor’ and Lockheed Martin’s F-35 ‘Lightning’) and China (Chengdu’s J20 ‘Mighty Dragon’) already operate fifth-generation fighter jets. The foremost feature defining this generation is stealth (the ability to penetrate enemy airspaces undetected), supplemented by supercruise (sustained supersonic flight with greater fuel efficiency and combat range), advanced manoeuvrability, sensor fusion (integrating data from multiple onboard sensors into actionable information), and network-centricity (advanced situational awareness through real-time information).

Russia has been developing stealth capabilities for nearly two decades, and began operating its semi-stealth Su-57 Felon in 2020. While it offers weaker ‘all aspect’ stealth and technology systems than the US and Chinese jets, its deep-strike capabilities have earned battle-tested recognition in Ukraine and Syria. India’s next-generation indigenous stealth fighter programme, the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), is expected to roll out its prototype by 2028-2029, with production slated for 2032-2033, and deliveries targeted for 2035-2036, barring delays.

The past, present, and future

In its early bid to acquire stealth technology, India sought but failed to purchase the best-in-class F-22 Raptor in the early 2000s. In 2005, it explored a partnership on the F-35 programme. Unable to join, in 2007, India turned to Russia’s programme of advanced front-line aviation complexes (PAK-FA), later known as the Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) programme. By 2010, a preliminary contract was signed to deliver 250 aircraft to the IAF at an estimated $35 billion. Years of delays, design differences, and cost overruns led India to exit the programme in 2018, after investing $295 million. 

In 2011, the Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA) and Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), launched the AMCA programme. Designed as a 25-tonne, twin-engine, single-seat fighter capable of Mach 2.15 (2,600 kmph), the Mk-1 variant is expected to offer a competitive combat range of 1,620 kilometres. Manufacturing of its first prototype began in March 2022, and in March 2024, the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) approved a Rs 15,000 crore-project to develop five prototypes. This March, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh approved the programme’s ‘execution model’, allowing Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) to compete and partner with private sector players.

Russia continues to offer deep collaboration to India and has even upped the ante this year, considering China’s rapid, threatening advances in this field. The Chinese have significantly expanded production of the J20 ‘Mighty Dragon’ stealth fighter, enhancing engine thrust for speed and range, and advancing network-centric co-ordination with radars, drones, and other reconnaissance and command grids — thus, setting the foundation for future generations of AI-powered air force systems.

This is where India’s already grave air combat and defence conundrums — on account of a six-decade low fighter jet squadron strength of 29 against the sanctioned 42, which is a serious national security impediment — get amplified. With only the American F-35, Chinese J-35, and Russian Su-57 available on the global market, India’s interim choices are limited. The US’ costly and troubled F-35 programme comes with technical, operational, and sovereign constraints. At the same time, China, a geopolitical adversary, is set to supply up to 40 units of its soon-to-be-deployed J-35s to Pakistan from 2026. This leaves Russia, India’s long-standing military supplier and geopolitical well-wisher, as the most viable near-term source to acquire fifth-generation capabilities.

For a rising power like India, such advanced, and sensitive, technology paradigms and ecosystems rarely emerge from an exponential leap. Rather, they tend to be an evolution of a steady commitment and investment towards incremental waves. Unlike the generation-leading Rafale and F-22, the Su-57 is an evolving platform. Though expected to be a costlier long-term option, due to stealth maintenance needs compared to the Rafale and its two-engine design versus the F-35, the Su-57 offers lower initial unit costs, partial compatibility with India’s existing fighter jet manufacturing lines, and Russia’s willingness to offer both technology transfer and joint production. Combined with India’s immediate operational needs, these factors make the programme a compelling prospect as indigenous LCA and AMCA programmes mature alongside.

(The writer works on technology and geopolitics)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.