Fear of truth, fear of escalation: China has assessed Modi correctly

As China’s army was inflicting defeats on Indian forces on the disputed border in November 1962, Parliament had been convened to discuss the conflict and bilateral relations. L M Singhvi, an independent MP from Jodhpur who would later join the BJP, backed by some Opposition MPs, requested that it should be a secret session of Lok Sabha as they were to discuss a “sensitive” matter. Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru rejected the idea.

“I gave careful consideration to it. I think that, at the present moment, it would not be desirable to have a secret session,” Nehru replied. “The issues before the House are of high interest to the whole country. Right at the beginning to ask for a secret session would have a bad effect on the country.” He then went on to personally answer all the questions raised about India’s China policy and the ongoing conflict.

In contrast to Nehru, Narendra Modi and the ruling BJP have gone one step ahead of Singhvi in keeping under wraps what’s going on in the border crisis with China. In the past 32 months, since the Chinese ingresses into Ladakh came to light, the government has refused to discuss the matter altogether, not even in an ‘in camera’ session. Leave alone a debate or discussion in the House, it has not allowed any questions on the subject in Parliament to be accepted for answers. The mention of border clashes has been restricted to a few perfunctory statements by the Defence Minister.

In late 2020, then Chairperson of the Rajya Sabha Venkaiah Naidu had asked the government to brief Opposition leaders in private, but that was never done. After the infamous all-party meeting in June 2020 where PM Modi claimed that no Chinese had entered our territory – essentially validating the Chinese claim that the Indian soldiers who died in Galwan were on Chinese territory – there have been no more meetings. Neither have journalists been allowed to report freely from the frontline, as was the case during the 1999 Kargil War.

Supporters of the government argue this total clampdown on information is essential to provide it the requisite space for diplomatic negotiations. This argument could hold water for a couple of months after the crisis started but has no meaning after 32 months when India’s negotiating strategy has failed to achieve disengagement in important areas like Depsang and Demchok, or de-escalation in areas where disengagement has taken place. In the 17th round of talks this month, the Chinese side flatly refused to discuss these issues and its foreign ministry has already publicly ruled out any suggestions of a return to status quo as it existed in early 2020. If the Modi government hides behind euphemisms like “friction points” and cannot acknowledge that China has denied Indian Army control of its territory, what force of argument can it bring during the talks? By now, it is evident that China has successfully exploited the Indian government’s penchant for secrecy as a personal weakness of PM Modi.

Beijing first learnt the lesson after the Doklam crisis in 2017, when the Indian Army went into Bhutan to stop the Chinese from constructing a road to Jampheri ridge. It resulted in a 72-day long faceoff, when a similar clampdown on information was applied by the government. As government sources declared a win after both sides announced disengagement, it soon emerged that the Chinese had stepped back by only 150 metres and constructed a military base, helipads, and infrastructure with a permanent deployment there. The Modi government claimed “victory” while the Chinese got their way. Ladakh would have been similar but in this case, Beijing has refused to give Modi a face-saver to somehow claim an honourable resolution.

The government wanted to bury the clash at Tawang, where PLA soldiers reportedly fired rounds in the air, but had to concede the truth after a couple of journalists reported it. That the Chinese have constructed an all-weather road and a military camp 150 metres short of the clash site in 2022 is not easy for the government to explain.

This information came out from publicly available satellite imagery put out by an Australian think-tank while other commercially available imagery from HawkEye360 has shown PLA and Indian infrastructure and military deployment all along the LAC. Foreign governments would definitely have far more detailed information available to them. It is often betrayed by foreign diplomats and visiting officials in their private interactions in New Delhi. This nails the claim that a parliamentary debate would make operational details available to the adversary.

China has correctly assessed that fear of a military escalation in Delhi holds back any bold Indian moves, diplomatic or military. The Modi government is gripped by a fear of provoking China. MoS for Home Ajay Teni deletes a tweet within minutes of proclaiming that he had met a Tibetan delegation. US officials are told not to mention Chinese aggression on the border in any statement, and New Delhi has stalled any security-centric moves under Quad.

The attitude, approach and actions of the Modi government on China give credence to claims that it is hiding something. Instead of defending our borders, it is more intent on defending the strongman image of the Prime Minister. Provided a regular dose of Hindutva nationalism by the ruling party and mainstream media, many Indians believe that India can militarily defeat China. The gulf between image and reality is being packed by propaganda, PR, and fake news.

Democracy has been India’s strength, and public opinion should be used smartly by the government during negotiations with China. Hiding the truth only emboldens China, which has seen through the veneer of Modi’s image. A free and frank discussion in Parliament will not tie the hands of a leader who is self-confident and sure of himself. Running away from the truth is not only evasion of democratic accountability but 32 months after the border crisis with China, also a strategic folly.