Lithium find celebration premature

There is a question about the advisability of mining in the ecologically fragile and seismically unstable Himalayas

There is much excitement about the reported discovery of large amounts of lithium ore in Jammu’s Reasi district, but it needs to be tempered with realities on the ground and even under the ground. The Union Ministry of Mines recently announced that the Geological Survey of India (GSI) has inferred lithium resources of 5.9 million tonnes in the area. As the country depends largely on imports of lithium and lithium-ion batteries, the inferred size of the resources has raised huge hopes. Lithium is the most essential element in battery storage technology and solar power and wind turbine systems. It is crucial for electric vehicles and medical devices like pacemakers. Much of the world’s supply comes from the lithium triangle of Bolivia, Argentina and Chile, and the refining capacity is concentrated in China. It will be a game-changer if India gets a place in the supply chain.

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But there are some sobering factors. In the first place, the estimated quantity of the ore may not be correct. The estimate is based on a 1999 survey of the GSI which indicates “inferred’’ resources with a low level of probability. The estimates are “inferred, based on interpretation of geological, geophysical, geochemical and geotechnical investigation results.” According to the UN Framework Classification (UNFC) for minerals followed by India, G3, preliminary exploration, which is the present level of discovery, is the second of four stages. Only the later stages of general exploration (G2), and detailed exploration (G1), will give an estimate of “probable” and “proven” quantities of the ore. If the quantities are significantly lower than the present estimates, the viability and the economic rationale for extraction may need re-examination. It is likely to take a decade of efforts and substantial investment to get a correct picture. There are many cases of initial survey of mineral deposits of all categories turning out be too optimistic in India and in other countries.

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Another question is about the advisability of mining in the ecologically fragile and seismically unstable Himalayas. The adverse impact of mining and construction activities is increasingly seen in the entire region. If mining is to take place, the local population will have to be shifted out. There are chances of increased water and air pollution and biodiversity loss. Experts have said that mining may not be easy in this terrain of mountains and forests. The estimated reserves are located near the Line of Control (LoC) and so the geopolitical implications of mining in the area will have to be considered when plans are worked out. All this shows that the lithium discovery must be followed up, but celebration is premature.