For I.N.D.I.A.’s future, Congress must make some tough calls

The Congress’ dealings with AAP, the TMC, and the Samajwadi Party will test the patience and diplomatic skills of its negotiating team

As the Congress gears up for seat-sharing negotiations with its allies in I.N.D.I.A., it faces the perennial dilemma of striking a balance between accommodating its partners and protecting its diminishing turf.

Though it cannot abandon its efforts, however ineffectual, to strengthen its party, the Congress can ill-afford to persist with its ‘big brother’ attitude vis-a-vis its allies after its recent drubbing in the three Hindi heartland states of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan. There is also a realistic internal assessment in the Congress that its footprint across India has shrunk immeasurably even though it remains the largest political party in I.N.D.I.A. 

This reality check has led Congress strategists to suggest that the party focus its attention and energies on 250-300 Lok Sabha seats in the upcoming general elections. The Congress is yet to decide the number of seats on which it will field candidates, but there is a possibility it could be less than the 421 seats it contested in 2019, of which it won a mere 52.

If the Congress wishes to call the shots in I.N.D.I.A. after the polls, its primary task will be to contain the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in states where the two are pitted directly against each other. It’s not an easy task given the party’s past dismal record. In 2019, the Congress and the BJP went face-to-face with each other in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Karnataka, accounting for 128 seats. The Congress won only four.

Unlike the last general elections when the Congress fought from a position of strength after it won assembly polls in three heartland states, it will be far tougher for the party this time as it will face a surcharged BJP given its recent convincing victories in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan.

The survival of I.N.D.I.A. depends on the Congress. As the anchor of this bloc, comprising a host of regional players, the Congress has an onerous responsibility. It must deliver in the states where the BJP is its main rival. At the same time, the Congress must make some hard decisions before going in for seat-sharing negotiations with its allies. Since it is not able to dictate terms to its allies, it has to be more pragmatic in its dealings with them, making sure it does not pitch its demands too high.

While its talks with the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), and the Janata Dal (U) (JDU) are expected to come through despite tough posturing by all the concerned players, the Congress’ dealings with the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), the Trinamool Congress (TMC), and the Samajwadi Party (SP) will test the patience and diplomatic skills of its negotiating team.

There are reports that in Uttar Pradesh, the SP is not willing to spare more than two seats — Amethi and Rae Bareli — for the Congress which has demanded 22 seats based on its performance in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections. However, the Congress is in no position to battle too hard as it has a negligible presence in the state. The grand old party has no social base there, while its organisation is not in good shape. On its part, the SP will ask the Congress for its share of seats in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, as it did in the recent assembly polls (but was rebuffed by it). This time the Congress must work on a reasonable arrangement, without compromising its interests.

Similarly, the Congress will have to deal with a tough negotiator in AAP’s Arvind Kejriwal. He is said to have offered one seat in Delhi and two in Punjab, but the Congress is pressing for more. Its demand is because it has eight Lok Sabha members from Punjab. The Congress and the AAP have a troubled relationship and this will be reflected in their seat-sharing discussions. Like the SP, the AAP will also ask for a share of seats in Haryana, Gujarat, and Rajasthan, even though the party has a negligible presence there. 

TMC’s Mamata Banerjee is also playing tough. She is said to have offered no more than two seats to the Congress in West Bengal. Though the Congress is bound to bargain for a better deal, it will be difficult to make a strong case for itself as the party has been virtually wiped out in the state.

The Congress has its task cut out in the coming weeks. It remains to be seen if it can work out a satisfactory arrangement with its allies which is critical if I.N.D.I.A. wishes to present itself as a serious and cohesive challenger to the BJP.

(Anita Katyal is a Delhi-based journalist.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.