How the world must help Syria help itself

The departure of dictator Bashar al Assad for Moscow within two weeks of the offensive by rebel forces, led by the Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), supported by Turkey-supported Syrian National Army and an assortment of rebel forces to the south, has been described by West Asia expert Talmiz Ahmed as ‘extraordinarily bewildering, totally unexpected, and very astonishing.’

The fighting in Syria has been at a stalemate since 2020, and it was allowed back into the Arab League only last year. Therefore, the timing of the offensive and its rapid success, makes Ahmed observe ‘a deep-seated conspiracy between Israel, Turkey and the United States (US).’

For Turkey, it was to get Assad out of the way so that the 3.3 million refugees in Turkey could be returned to Syria. For Israel, the toppling of the Assad dynasty has been a long-standing goal. The regime’s collapse enables the US to further isolate Iran and embarrass Russia.

As in Iraq when the Islamic State in Iraq (IS) took over Mosul and in Afghanistan when the Taliban defeated the Afghan National Army in double-quick time, the Syrian forces melted away. Assad’s backers were busy elsewhere. While Iran was focused bolstering Hezbollah in Lebanon, Russia was concentrating on the Ukraine conflict.

However, there is sufficient precedence of regime change collapsing under the weight of its success with rebels fighting each other over time. This has been visible in Iraq, Libya, Yemen, and Sudan.

Consequently, Ahmed believes the aftermath of the offensive will likely leave Syria worse off.

The question arises as to how to avert such an outcome by transforming this juncture into a ‘historic opportunity’ and preserving Syria from another bout of civil war in which the rebels contest each other for the spoils and power.

On this count, the situation is not without promise.

The HTS has been preparing for the role of taking over Syria in its strong hold at Idlib. It has over the last few years taken care to distance itself from its Islamist past as offshoot of the IS. Its leader, Ahmed al Sharaa, reinvented himself as a pragmatic revolutionary. The HTS acquired administrative experience and capacity in running Idlib.

During its operations and since its victory, it has made the right outreach to other stakeholders, including the Syrian government. It has allowed the prime minister, police, and officials to stay on. It has signalled Russians on continuity of their presence at their air and naval bases. It has sought to calm minorities fearful of its Islamist past and cautioned its fighters on protection of civilians.

Even so, the international community would do well to assist, in keeping with the long-standing principle of the Syrian peace process: ‘The future of Syria is a matter for the Syrians to determine.’

The peace process was earlier jointly led by the United Nations (UN) and Arab League, witnessing mediation by joint mediators. As of now, the UN Security Council remains seized of the matter and has a special envoy, Geir Pederson, taking stock. In the field, humanitarians are providing succour to the displaced.

The UN has a start point in Security Council Resolutions 2254 (2015) of December 18, 2015, and Resolution 2554 (2020) of December 4, 2020. These call for an interim governance arrangement enabling inclusive governance, drafting of a new constitution, and conduct of credible elections, and held to a finite timeline and international standards of accountability.

As first step, review of the HTS on the terror sanctions list would need to be done against its claim of not being associated with any extremist entity. While exercising caution in support of the Taliban has proved warranted in its treatment of women, the UN could be more forthcoming in the case of HTS, lest it miss an opportunity in Syria.

The promise of reconstruction helps incentivise moderation, since accessing external assistance will only be possible if there is a modicum of stability, which is, in turn, predicated on an interim power-sharing arrangement amicably arrived at.

The European Union’s offer of reconstruction assistance is timely on this count. Such assistance can be expected from the Arab states too, enabling a proportion of the $200 billion to be raised over time.

India, being a long standing friend of Syria and having widespread regard in the region, must push for the UN’s lead in political and humanitarian support, lest extremism find roots in another ungoverned space.

(Ali Ahmed is a former infantryman, academic, and international civil servant. X: @aliahd66.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.