Foreign policy achievements are modest

Prime Minister Narendra Modi sprang a surprise over when he appointed Subrahmanyam Jaishankar as External Affairs Minister in his second term in late May 2019. Jaishankar was the most suitable person to head the foreign ministry given his illustrious career in the Indian Foreign Service, having held prestigious assignments like that of foreign secretary and served as Ambassador to China and the US earlier. But perhaps the ministerial assignment came as a surprise to him, too. After retiring from foreign service, Jaishankar had started writing his book The India Way: Strategies for an Uncertain World, which came out in 2020, an unconventional occurrence, to say the least.

Thus, when he began his political career, Jaishankar carried the credential of rich professional experience to guide the nation’s foreign policy at a time of spectacular changes taking place in an “uncertain world”, as he himself put it. Both in his book and as one in charge of foreign affairs, he has taken pains to emphasise India’s long-held belief in and advocacy of multilateralism in the conduct of international relations. Needless to say, Nehru, as the architect of Indian foreign policy, emphasised the need for multipolarity and multilateralism, which led to the non-alignment policy.

Jaishankar has also reiterated our commitment to a rule-based international order, along with his emphasis on the need to get out of the Cold War prism, indirectly attacking the opposition parties, sections of the media and academia whom he sees as prisoners of that mindset.

My analysis of Jaishankar’s role as External Affairs Minister is in the limited context of our relations with China, the US and the Asia-Pacific region in recent times, not covering the entire external world.

As regards China, it is worthwhile to start with the Chinese adventure in the Galwan Valley in May 2020. It is a measure of the failure of the foreign office and the intelligence agencies that they were not able to foresee the swiftness with which the Chinese forces moved in and killed several of our soldiers. Jaishankar’s talks held with his Chinese counterpart, mediated by Moscow, did not yield much success in making China fully withdraw its soldiers from the region and end the standoff, a fact acknowledged by Jaishankar himself. In recent months, China has beefed up its position along the LAC again. It has built additional lodging facilities for its soldiers, field hospitals, has procured new snow mobility vehicles, and is, in all likelihood, preparing to stay put for a long haul. It has also signalled its continued hostile posture in the Arunachal Pradesh region.

The Chinese have even gone on to join Pakistan in raising the Kashmir issue in international forums, including seeking a discussion in the UN Security Council. Nor has Indian diplomacy been able to get China to dilute its opposition to our bid for membership in the Nuclear Suppliers Group and in the UNSC.

In the Asia-Pacific region, India is going along with the US adding a veiled military component to the Quad. The need, however, is to insulate ourselves from the larger US interests in the region vis-a-vis China. The real challenge lies in decoupling the India-China power rivalry from the US-China competition, while at the same time continuing with efforts to checkmate China’s growing strategic presence in the region. Achieving strategic parity with China remains a formidable challenge.

As for Indo-US relations, the Modi government is focused on upgrading ties with Washington. Jaishankar paid a visit to the US in May, seeking American help to overcome the Modi government’s inept handling of the Covid-19 pandemic. Not much came of that particular visit, except the promise of a few million doses of vaccines, which have reportedly not yet been shipped due to delays on India’s part.

During his visit to India recently, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken emphasised that democratic values bind the two countries. However, as a measure of America’s commitment to human rights, civil liberties and inter-religious harmony, Blinken addressed a meeting of civil society groups in Delhi, signalling America’s displeasure over the Modi regime’s handling of issues related to democratic principles and freedoms.

At a broader level, given the Biden administration’s foreign policy priorities, which include halting China’s march to the position of global hegemon, strengthening NATO, repositioning the G7 in world affairs, and retaining its pivotal position in the Middle East, it has become unsure as to what kind of priority India occupies in the US foreign policy calculus.

The conclusion that emanates from the foregoing analysis is that despite having a scholar-diplomat as External Affairs Minister and despite Jaishankar personally enjoying close rapport with many of his counterparts globally, India’s foreign policy achievements during the last two years have been modest at best. It remains to be seen how Jaishankar, and the Modi government, will handle the Afghanistan issue now.

(The writer is a former Professor of Political Science, Bangalore University, and former Senior Fellow, ICSSR, New Delhi)