Pollpourri: Which way will the state swing?

The upcoming Assembly elections in Karnataka are the flavour of the season. The media is awash with poll reports from the perspective of the political parties and the personalities involved, and about the role of caste and religion. The focus is also on secularism versus communalism with the BJP going all out to cash in on its communal polarisation plank and the Congress opposing the injection of religious overtones in elections.

There is much talk about the elections throwing up a majority government by either of the main contenders — the BJP or the Congress — with both sides claiming that they will form the government on their own. The JD(S), which is the third pole in the elections, is confident that it will be a factor in government formation, alluding to the possibility of a fractured mandate.

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Surveys conducted in recent times by the Congress and the BJP, apart from some independent sources, point to the possibility of a hung Assembly leading to the formation of a coalition government, which will put the JD(S) in the position of a kingmaker, maybe even the king. Whichever way the electorate swings, the fact is that the ruling BJP cannot take it for granted that it will return to power, notwithstanding Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s (and Home Minister Amit Shah's) repeated visits to the state in the name of inaugurating some project or the other. In the electoral history of independent India, no prime minister has campaigned so incessantly during Assembly elections as Modi has done and is doing.

Then there is the role of caste in influencing the elections significantly. Caste plays a predominant role in the choice of candidates by parties. Leaders of contending parties go by the population percentage of constituencies while deciding on giving tickets to candidates. Majority of the voters, especially in rural areas, do vote on caste lines, lending legitimacy to the dictum that they 'vote their caste and not cast their votes. The Lingayats, who constitute 13-15% of the population, and the Vokkaligas (12-14%) have retained nearly half of the 224 seats in the State Assembly. But it is also a fact that the SCs, STs and OBCs put together constitute an equal and, in some places, a higher percentage of the population of the state. In the outgoing Assembly, there are 58 Lingayat and 42 Vokkaliga MLAs (100 put together). Interestingly, their number is exactly matched by 55 SC, ST and 45 OBC MLAs, the rest being shared by the minorities, Brahmins and others.

The BJP, a largely Hindu Party, is also reaching out to the SCs, STs, and OBCs. Comparatively, the Congress' support base among the SCs, STs and OBCs has been declining over the years, though its minority support base has remained intact. It is this stark political reality which may pose obstacles to the Congress in wresting power from the BJP. As for the JD(S), its support comes largely from the Vokkaligas. It is this factor, along with its absence of a pan-Karnataka image, which prevents the party from being a principal contender for power in state politics.

It is relevant to list the issues that haven't got enough attention. They range from inflation, leading to rising prices of essential commodities, unemployment in double digits, water supply problems, inadequate quality education, poor roads and health facilities and shortage in seed and fertiliser supplies to farmers. Urban areas, especially Bengaluru, are awaiting better transport, stormwater drainage facilities, garbage clearance and security of women in workplaces. These issues are seldom attended to by the parties, but unfortunately, they do not seem to influence the outcome of elections.

In their quest for retention or acquisition of power, the BJP and the Congress are handicapped by growing factionalism. While the Congress is facing an internal tussle for power (for the CM position) by Siddaramaiah and D K Shivakumar in the event of the party coming to power, the BJP is witnessing tensions within the party as a result of the perceived sidelining of B S Yediyurappa, who is a significant force within the Lingayat community. As for the JD(S), it is plagued by desertions resulting from the Gowda family’s stranglehold over the party. The distribution of tickets by the party high commands is likely to exacerbate factionalism and possibly, more desertions. What impact such developments would have on the electoral fortunes of the parties is to be seen in the coming days.

(The writer is former professor, Bangalore University, and former Senior Fellow, ICSSR, New Delhi)