India-China Ties | New dam in Tibet yet another point of conflict

The fears around this new project are as real as the rise in earthquakes around the Three Gorges Dam and the fears emerging from the cracks

As per China’s official media sources on December 25, Beijing announced that it was all set to begin construction of the world’s largest dam and hydro power project across Yarlung Tsangpo river in Tibet. This project is expected to produce 300 billion kilowatts of electricity annually and will cost $137 billion.

China’s President Xi Jinping has been very keen on this project under the idea of ‘sending western electricity eastward’. As per Xinhua, ‘By harnessing the abundant hydropower resources of the Yarlung Zangbo River, the project will also spur the development of solar and wind energy resources in surrounding areas….’. This project is a crucial part of China’s 14th five-year plan.

This will be larger than the Three Gorges Dam which produces around 88 billion kilowatts of electricity. It may also inject the required amount of infrastructure boost for China’s domestic economy too. However, given the size and scale of the project, it is expected that it will result in the displacement of a large number of Tibetans and upset the ecological balance, a figure not released by Beijing and is being promoted as one which will lead to creation of a number of jobs. Tibet has witnessed large number of protests, news of which has been consistently supressed. In addition to domestic challenges, the announcement has regional geopolitical impact too.

This news comes just a few days after India and China witnessed a positive momentum in bilateral relations. This announcement highlights the beginning of yet another point of friction between the two Asian neighbours. India’s concerns are legitimate as the Yarlung Tsangpo flows into India as the Brahmaputra which is the lifeline for many Indian states. What adds to India’s woos is that New Delhi is the lower riparian state and the dam has the capacity of putting India at China’s mercy as far as water flows are concerned. It also raises fears pertaining to flash flood. There are reports suggesting that New Delhi is in the process of building its own dam over the Brahmaputra in Arunachal Pradesh to mitigate some of the challenges.

The mega dam has the capacity to challenge India’s water security, as well as that of Bangladesh. Water is crucial for development and growth, and change in the river’s flow can adversely impact the local ecology, electricity generation, fisheries, and agriculture. Given the fragility of bilateral ties, Beijing’s disproportionate control over the situation could further complicate relations.

The disputed border adds another layer of complexity. China’s repeated claims of Arunachal Pradesh as South Tibet, and, thus, as Chinese territory does not help in improving ties. If the border is disputed so will be river which flows through this territory. This warped view by China puts an end to any hope of negotiations on water sharing and finalising a treaty. Beijing can very well lay claim to the full water flow. Such news further pushes for a need to immediately look for ways to come to an agreement on the border and underscores the multiple security challenges which can emerge.

China has a history of weaponising resources. In a situation of conflict or even just to exert power, Beijing can modify the flow of water to India. This provides Beijing with yet another tool to limit New Delhi’s diplomatic manoeuvrability. China in the past has also stopped data sharing with India. Given the aggressive foreign policy and geopolitical posturing under Xi, India should not take China’s word at face value. China has backtracked on its commitment and manipulated situations for its own benefits.

Tibet is the source of multiple rivers which flow downstream to India and other South Asian countries. The region is also susceptible to earthquakes and mega projects here further raise the risk of safety of the region. This also raises the question of who would be held responsible in the event of a calamity. The fears around this project are as real as the rise in earthquakes around the Three Gorges Dam and the fears emerging from the cracks.

(Gunjan Singh is Associate Professor, OP Jindal Global University.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.