Is AI going to take away jobs?

Fear-mongering sells much like how popular science highlights the gravitational pull of black holes to draw attention to the topic. If a black hole gets close to the earth, the earth gets sucked into it. Spooky. What they don't tell you is that there are objects called white dwarfs (remnant cores of dead stars), which are 100 times more common than black holes and can easily do to earth what black holes would do. They are just not as glamorous as black holes. Likewise, there has been a lot of fear-mongering around the development of AI, especially around its impact on the workforce. Is this fear justified? Or is fear-mongering a way to get clicks and views? Let's explore the impact of technology on employment.

Karl T Comptonn, in an issue of the MIT Technology Review in 1938, coined the term "technological unemployment," defining it as "the loss of work due to the obsolescence of an industry or the use of machines to replace workmen or increase their per capita production. This means that when technological advancements happen, there is a reduction in the workforce but an increase in the output of the industry. Hence, companies can get away with employing fewer people and/or increasing output without increasing the wages of their employees. So, is technology ultimately detrimental or beneficial to the labour force? There are plenty of examples from both sides of the argument.

Largely speaking, technological unemployment is a statistical myth. If you ignore individual cases, employment has not decreased significantly over the decades because of technological advancements. If the case of technological unemployment were to be true, then there must have been a steady decrease in employment ever since the beginning of the industrial era, but that is not the case. Technology has created new industries and increased the consumer market by making commodities cheap by lowering the cost of production.

In certain instances, we see that technological progress leads to social problems. New technology replaces old technology: landline telephones have been replaced by mobile phones. New art replaces old art: film photography has been replaced by digital photography. These represent a temporary dip in employment. New technologies create new industries and, in turn, replace old jobs with new ones.

The 2020 Future of Jobs Survey done by the World Economic Forum reported that, by 2025, of the companies surveyed in all major industries, AI will be adopted by most companies, including the digital communications and IT sectors with the highest likelihood of adoption.

The 2023 Future of Jobs Survey done by the World Economic Forum reported that, for the years 2023–2027, approximately 75% of companies said they would adopt AI and that a net 25.6% of the surveyed companies reported that AI is set to create more jobs. The only technologies reported to reduce employment are humanoid robots and non-humanoid robots (industrial automation, drones, etc.), with -2.6% and -8.8% impact, respectively, on the current employment rate. This is offset by the 26 other technologies that were reported to create more jobs. Furthermore, AI and machine learning specialists are projected to top the list of the fastest-growing jobs. The fastest declining jobs are clerical and secretarial roles, with bank tellers and related clerks taking the biggest blow.

AI is a technological advancement that will replace old jobs with new ones. The new jobs that will be created cannot be predicted now. The disruption due to technological advancement and the upheaval of the workforce must be alleviated by humanitarian considerations. What we must do is introduce new technology slowly and phase out old technology so the workforce is not hit by a wave of unemployment. A stable workforce must take precedence over short-term profits. In addition, research has shown that human beings get mental health benefits from employment, especially when compared to the ill effects of unemployment on mental health.

The real causes of unemployment are unstable economies, the concentration of monopoly power, and recently, a pandemic. Unemployment rates have always shot up during periods of recession. The Great Depression in the USA, the 2008 Global Economic Crisis, and the recession caused by the Russia-Ukraine War. The concentration of monopoly power increases the barrier to entry for competitors and, therefore, eliminates consumer choice and competition. The lack of consumer choice and competition means that fewer people are needed in the workforce. The real culprits, therefore, are unhealthy economic systems and not technology disruptions.