Is Anta a strategic defeat that suits Raje’s rivals within BJP?

Congress’s Anta bypoll win in Rajasthan has perhaps dented the Vasundhara Raje brand in Rajasthan more than anyone else. While the ruling BJP and Chief Minister Bhajanlal Sharma have certainly taken a hit after Congress’ Pramod Jain Bhaya defeated Morpal Suman, the outcome is being seen primarily as a personal setback for the former chief minister. 

The loss may push Raje’s political wilderness into sharper relief. And her quest for a revival through the Anta bypoll appears to have reached a dead end. Not only is her own influence under question, but the political future of her son and MP Dushyant Singh also hangs in the balance. 

Anta falls in Baran district, the stronghold of Raje and Dushyant Singh, who is a five-time MP from the area. Morpal, widely regarded as a Raje loyalist, was backed heavily by both mother and son. In the 2023 Assembly polls and even the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Raje had kept her campaign engagement limited. This time, however, she and Dushyant coordinated the campaign extensively. The defeat, therefore, is being read as her personal failure rather than a party setback. 

Although the loss is a blow for the BJP, party insiders say Raje’s rival factions view it as a boon in disguise. A win would have bolstered her image, reaffirmed her grassroots appeal, and strengthened her claims to renewed relevance.

Political observers say that the defeat is being blamed squarely on Raje, while CM Sharma and state BJP president Madan Rathore appear to have escaped scrutiny. Some argue that leaders in Delhi—and several of her state-level rivals—may have been quietly hoping for such a result, which would underline her waning influence. Others contend that nominating a relative of disqualified MLA Kanwarlal Meena might have yielded better results. 

“Raje was perhaps deliberately given a free hand in choosing the candidate. She chose her loyalist, the low-profile Morpal, who has only served as a panchayat pradhan. She made personal calls to voters, held roadshows, canvassed widely and worked hard. Although the CM also held roadshows, heavyweight ministers like Kirori Lal Meena stayed away. BJP leaders left the outcome to Raje and avoided taking collective responsibility. As a result, she can neither push for her supporters in the impending Cabinet reshuffle nor expect her son to be considered for a ministerial berth. This may well be a ploy to cut them down to size, engineered by her own party colleagues with the blessing of the high command,” political commentator Narayan Bareth told DH.  

Interestingly, after the defeat, Raje’s X handle focused only on congratulatory posts about the BJP’s sweeping win in Bihar, with no mention of the Anta setback. Intra-party friction and the late announcement of the BJP candidate also contributed to the loss. 

The bypoll was held after BJP MLA Kanwarlal Meena was disqualified following his conviction in a 20-year-old case. 

“Congress, on the other hand, announced Pramod Jain Bhaya’s candidature early, reposing faith in this popular leader, whose social outreach is immense. A protégé of Congress minister Shanti Dhariwal, a close Gehlot aide, Bhaya sponsors mass marriages for poor girls and conducts extensive charity work in the region,” notes political observer Prakash Bhandari. 

With this win, Bhaya becomes a four-time MLA and remains firmly in Gehlot’s inner circle. Senior Congress leaders, including state president Govind Singh Dotasra, Tikaram Jully, Sachin Pilot, Sukhwinder Singh Randhawa, and Gehlot himself, canvassed in the final phase, mobilising the Mali community’s support. 

Morpal, also from the Mali community, failed to consolidate those votes – proving decisive in Bhaya’s victory. Congress also micromanaged every booth this time.  

Mali and Meena voters each number around 35,000 and hold the key to the constituency. But the Meena vote split due to independent candidate Naresh Meena, who finished just 128 votes behind BJP’s Morpal and garnered over 29% of the vote share. 

While the victory brought some cheer to the Congress in Rajasthan, its morale was tempered by the party’s rout in Bihar. Still, Congress’ narrative of a parchiwali sarkar – portraying CM Sharma as dependent on instructions from Delhi – seems to have worked. The party also highlighted its welfare schemes, including the popular Chiranjeevi health programme. 

The Anta loss may not significantly affect the chief minister, who is expected to continue, but the sudden transfer of Chief Secretary Sudhanshu Pant to Delhi has caused disquiet. Pant, formerly health secretary in the Union government, was deputed to help first-time CM Sharma in 2024–a move seen as a tactical intervention from the Centre. 

Initially dubbed the state’s ‘de facto CM’, Pant’s authority had gradually waned as other officers drew closer to Sharma. Tensions reportedly emerged over official transfers, appointments, and what some officials described as a lack of administrative autonomy. Some files were being sent directly to the CMO, bypassing the chief secretary’s office, in violation of protocol. Though his return to Delhi is officially described as voluntary, the persistent turf wars between the bureaucracy and political leadership appear to be real. 

Whether Pant’s premature exit means Sharma is finally asserting himself and mastering political manoeuvring remains to be seen.  However, the Anta loss – seen by some as orchestrated by certain BJP factions – validates the view that Raje continues to pose a challenge and that efforts to thwart her political comeback are far from over. 

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.