Last week, Ghulam Nabi Azad severed his 50-year-old relations with the Congress party. Beyond the buzz it created in the media and political circles, which might last for a few more days, the test for Azad begins now.
After quitting the Congress, Azad spoke extensively to the media, but two of his observations make for interesting reading. "I always thought Modi is crude as he does not have a wife and family. But he showed humanity." And "Congress anpadon ki jamaat hai (The Congress is a party of illiterates)."
The two statements, read in conjunction, convey an impression of being consistent with Prime Minister Narendra Modi's oft-repeated slogan of "Congress-mukt" Bharat. Azad's latest foray into his home territory of Jammu and Kashmir to launch the second innings of his political career has to be keenly observed, keeping this backdrop in mind. This background can become a liability or an asset depending on how he and his supporters carry forward the arguments.
Praising Modi could be a liability in the Muslim-dominated assembly constituencies in the Jammu region, which has a mixed population. However, his anti-Congress tirade could be an asset for his yet-to-be-named political party to fill the vacuum created by the departure from the Congress's Union Territory unit and overshadow his bonhomie with Modi.
Given the complexity and confusion prevailing in Jammu and Kashmir politics, Azad is in an unenviable position. He could find himself occupying the opposition space from the point of view of standing up to the BJP, particularly in the Jammu region. Azad has the stature to become the rallying point for all those forces, following the decimation of the Congress, which is a near certainty, challenging the BJP and bidding for power in the UT.
However, an imponderable for Azad would be how to deal with his friend and fellow traveller, National Conference supremo Farooq Abdullah. Azad's entry as a new rallying point could worry Abdullah, whose National Conference was otherwise hoping to do well in the elections as and when held, mainly in the Kashmir regions and some pockets of the Jammu division. There was also speculation that the two leaders worked out a Congress-National Conference pact before Azad's exit.
But today, Azad and Abdullah, if they were to reach an understanding, would be a formidable force to challenge the BJP. However, Abdullah would find himself in a bind as, at the national level, he is part of the Congress-led opposition unity factor. He may find it difficult to share space with Azad in areas where both leaders command influence. If it all happens, that will be at the cost of the already established National Conference.
Azad has already expressed his desire to float a Jammu and Kashmir-centric political party, his first independent political foray in 50 years of his political life out of the shadow of the Gandhi family. Azad has a tall stature in the region, had an unblemished chief ministerial inning and enjoys acceptability in Jammu as well as Kashmir, the two diverse regions of the UT.
Azad's position becomes advantageous in the context of the New Delhi-propelled political experiments to create new political alternatives in Jammu and Kashmir that have failed. These include the Apni Party of the businessman turned politician, former minister belonging to the Muftis' Peoples Democratic Party, Altaf Bukhari as its head, or courting Sajad Lone's People's Conference.
The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) started with a bang a few months back, particularly after its victory in adjoining Punjab. It managed to create a Punjab-like buzz of "change", getting traction among people and attracting new entrants. But the euphoria fizzled sooner than expected. That a dozen leaders of the AAP resigned from the party to back Azad immediately after he resigned from the Congress, indicating which direction the wind could blow.
There is also speculation that BJP strategists have no problem seeing a 'friendly' Azad becoming the chief minister as a last resort since the BJP, despite all its efforts, is finding it hard to have a formidable trans-Jammu and Kashmir presence. It would want to contain the influence of Abdullah and his National Conference, and who knows, in the division of votes between Azad's outfit and National Conference in areas with a Muslim majority, the BJP might benefit, directly or indirectly.
If the Centre sees in Azad a prospective chief minister, it will happen only at the cost of a significant shift in the BJP's policy, post abrogation of Article 370 and 35A, to form a majority government on its own with a Hindu chief minister from Jammu. Will Modi, given his friendly posturing towards Azad, be ready for such a scale-down that will amount to a big policy shift? This question becomes important as Azad seems to be in no mood to confront the Centre and, in true Modi-mould, will focus on decimating the Congress in Jammu and Kashmir, the beginning of which has already been made.
The Centre's (read BJP) tacit support to Azad could act as a double-edged weapon if he decides to carry forward, even in the election campaign, the pro-Modi sentiments that have a great potential to be misconstrued as if he is acting as someone's proxy. If he decides to desist from that, he can become the rallying point for all anti-BJP sentiments prevailing in both the Jammu and Kashmir regions, but on different issues and with different dimensions.
How Azad conducts himself is very significant, but equally significant would be to watch the next move of Farooq Abdullah and how Congress faces the challenge. The moot point is even after seven decades of experimentation, Jammu and Kashmir is headed for yet another. The focus this time would be on Azad as the coming Assembly elections will be a make or mar exercise in the twilight of his political career.
(Anil Anand is a senior journalist)
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.
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