Left could help change West Bengal’s election arithmetic

Though the Left may not win seats, a revival could hurt the BJP, badly. This is a logical position since the BJP became a force in West Bengal by wresting the Left’s vote share in 2019. But votes are sticky.

There’s a hum in the air about the Left. The vibes and the tea-shop conversations have now put the burden of a much-improved performance on the group, especially the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) in alliance with the Congress.

There’s little doubt that the CPI(M) has been much more active and organised in its approach to the campaign, and it has fielded many fresh faces and young candidates. These should help it make a much greater impact on the electoral process, which should be reflected in the results in a general sense.

In 2019, the Congress contested separately, except in a couple of seats. The alliance should also make some impact, though it may not be a game-changer given the hurdles in the way of efficient vote transfers between two political formations with a history of inimicality and often violently adversarial relations. It’s tough to persuade victims to vote for actual or perceived persecutors.

However that plays out, Left adherents would be well advised not to expect a much-improved performance to necessarily translate into seats. It would help to look at the 2019 elections closely to calibrate expectations. The most important fact, as we shall see, is that Left candidates were a distant third in most constituencies.

Statewide, in 2019, the Left lost two seats, failing to win a single one, but it lost a huge 16.66 per cent vote share to plummet to 6.33 per cent.

It came third in the percentage of votes polled. The Congress also saw its share of votes polled fall by 4.03 per cent to 5.67 per cent, while the number of seats won fell from six to two. It’s worth noting that the Congress can win seats with a lower share of votes because it is mainly concentrated in two districts — Maldah and Murshidabad — while the Left’s votes are spread thinly across West Bengal.

At any rate, between the Left and the Congress, they won two seats and garnered 12 per cent of the vote. The magnitude of the Left’s task is apparent from the fact that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won 18 seats and 40.7 per cent of the vote (up 22.76 per cent), while the Trinamool Congress (TMC) won 22 seats with a vote share of 43.3 per cent (up 3.48 per cent). The Left will have to seriously up its game to get on to the scoresheet.

Let’s look at the disaggregated picture. The Congress got votes in six figures only in the five constituencies in Maldah and Murshidabad, of which it won from Maldah Dakshin, and in Basirhat. In the four other constituencies, it came second in one and third in the rest. The Left Front was fourth in all these constituencies.

The Left Front expectedly polled six figures in more constituencies: 16, spread all over the state. It came third in 35 constituencies and fourth in six. By arrangement, the Left did not contest from Maldah Dakshin, while the Congress skipped Jadavpur. Clearly, it has a mountain to climb in terms of winning too many seats.

Numbers don’t always provide the right nuances. In some places, a general fatigue with the TMC and the BJP could turn things around, especially if there’s a good candidate. Let’s take Basirhat. The Sandeshkhali events have not cast either party in a particularly good light. The CPI(M) candidate from there is Nirapada Sardar, who has a good reputation. The TMC won the seat by 350,000-odd votes and the Congress-Left combined got 173,000-odd votes. Despite favourable conditions, it’s a big ask.

The numbers stack up in a similar fashion all over. There is a theory doing the rounds that though the Left may not win seats, a revival could hurt the BJP, badly. Given that the BJP became a force in West Bengal by wresting the Left’s vote share in 2019, this is a logical position. But votes are sticky, it is difficult to envisage the kind of large-scale revival that will cancel out margins in the region of 100,000. Smaller margins may be under threat.

The simple fact is that the TMC has recovered a lot of ground itself and is clearly on the ascendant. A Kudmi group is contesting the elections in the Jungle Mahals — Bankura, Jhargram, Pashchim Medinipur, and Purulia. Given that the BJP won four seats here on the back of the Kudmi vote, the BJP should be worried.

Added to all this, a Left-Congress rally could alter electoral equations in West Bengal.

(Suhit K Sen is author of ‘The Paradox of Populism: The Indira Gandhi Years, 1966-1977’)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.

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