Macron's anti-Hamas ‘coalition’ is a lonely one

By Lionel Laurent

After fruitlessly pleading with the Global South to see things his way on Ukraine, Emmanuel Macron has spent the past week in the Middle East pleading with the Arab world to see things his way on Israel and Gaza. Namely: To condemn Hamas’ murderous October 7 attacks and push for the release of hostages, while also trying to restrain Israel’s ground offensive and revive the prospects of a long-term peace process.

Likened by some to a “tightrope act,” with a divided domestic audience and a resurgent far-right in mind, Macron’s performance has felt more like a dizzying bungee jump. It speaks to the West’s inability to make real diplomatic headway as the fighting intensifies

Macron’s penchant for grand Gaullist slogans — remember NATO’s “brain death”? — hasn’t helped. His call for a global “coalition” against Hamas, similar to that which fought ISIS, was intended to express solidarity with Israel after October 7 and reassure the French as worries about terror threats rise. But it popped like a soap-bubble upon first contact with reality. 

Israel considers the US to be all the coalition it needs as it targets Hamas’s combat infrastructure. Arab leaders were even less impressed; while fairly united in supporting the liberation of Iraqi and Syrian territory from ISIS’ jihadi-Salafist rule, their public opinion is far less so on Hamas, seen as tied to the Palestinian cause despite being labeled by the European Union and US as a terrorist group.

While it’s positive that Macron was able to meet leaders in Jordan, Egypt and the West Bank when Joe Biden couldn’t, the messy attempt to overlay ISIS and Hamas proved far less clear than the US president’s sharper warning to Israel not to be “blinded by rage.” Protesters in Ramallah set fire to a portrait of Macron, accused of complicity with Israel.

Even in Jordan, which has a peace treaty with Israel and which cracked down on Hamas in the 1990s, the monarchy hasn’t minced words on the death toll in Gaza as its large Palestinian population takes to the streets and tourists cancel trips. While Queen Rania in 2015 publicly berated    moderate Muslims for “not doing enough” to reject ISIS’s ideology, her recent CNN interview focused entirely on the West’s “double standard” in not condemning Gazan deaths.

Macron’s subsequent walk-back to a more modest “maritime humanitarian coalition,” intended to fix that perceived double standard, is fair enough — but it has yet to yield results. It has also highlighted a lack of unity within the West. France and its EU allies have spent days arguing over whether to call for a humanitarian “pause” or “pauses” in the fighting, with fears that calling for a one-off halt would look too much like a ceasefire

As for Friday’s United Nations resolution that did call for an immediate ceasefire, it exposed yet more splits: Some EU countries like France and Spain voted for it, some like Germany and Italy abstained, and some like Austria and Hungary opposed it. Throw in earlier squabbles over cutting Palestinian aid and this is a bad look for a bloc that could and should wield influence as Israel’s largest trading partner and as a top Palestinian donor. Instead the void has helped Qatar look indispensable and Turkey play mediator.

The aim here shouldn’t be to pine for a Western-dominated past — especially in a region where century-old names like Sykes-Picot and Balfour still reverberate — but to seek partnerships that can achieve more urgent goals such as addressing the fate of some 220 hostages Hamas holds in Gaza and ensuring the conflict doesn’t escalate into a wider war. 

 That might mean fewer coalitions of the unwilling and more work finding like-minded partners. The common position struck by France and the UK over the weekend, which saw Macron and Rishi Sunak warn against wider escalation and promote political answers to Hamas’ “barbarism,” is a start.

Eventually, Arab countries might step up themselves. Chatham House analyst Sanam Vakil says Gulf states have the ability to appeal to both Israel and Palestinians but also to engage with Iran and help create a “realistic, achievable pathway to peace.”

Former Middle East envoy Dennis Ross has also co-authored a paper proposing that a coalition of Arab states administer the Gaza Strip in the event Hamas is ousted or disabled. Supporting coalitions, rather than leading them, might be one acrobatic act Macron can pull off.