Madhya Pradesh | A methodical BJP defeats an overconfident Congress

The BJP’s victory over the Congress has meant that Kamal Nath failed to get the act together despite getting a carte blanche from the Congress high command.

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s longest-serving Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan has almost done the impossible with the party set to romp home with a spectacular win in Madhya Pradesh, which Congress leader Rahul Gandhi thought was a fruit ready to be plucked by his party.

If 64-year-old Chouhan emerged as the show's hero, the election virtually became the swan song for his 77-year-old rival Kamal Nath, who remained out of tune and out of touch with reality. 

The BJP’s victory over the Congress has meant that Nath failed to get the act together despite getting a carte blanche from the party’s high command. Questions will be asked about the way Nath and former Chief Minister Digvijaya Singh were given full charge of the state.

The victory in the Hindi heartland state is also much to boast about for Prime Minister Narendra Modi who shares the credit for the strategy and campaigning that ensured the wiping of the fatigue factor in the Chouhan dispensation.

With the BJP seeking to give all the credit to Modi for the success of the party in states which witnessed the polls, it would be him who would be deciding the next chief minister given the fact that the BJP had not projected a chief ministerial candidate in any of the states that went to the polls in this round of elections. Several Union ministers and central leaders including Prahlad Patel and Kailash Vijayvargiya were fielded by the BJP in the polls projecting that anyone could become the next chief minister.

The defeat will make the grand old party reflect on the way ahead given the fact that Priyanka Gandhi Vadra was the main campaigner. A few months back, Rahul Gandhi predicted that Congress would secure 150 seats in the polls. His statement meant that there was ‘much rotten’ in the BJP-ruled state.

What is remarkable about the BJP’s victory in Madhya Pradesh is that there appeared to be much anti-incumbency at the ground level that had prompted some exit polls predicting ~150-plus seats for the Congress in the 230-member assembly. 

Madhya Pradesh’s emergence as another Hindutva laboratory keeps the BJP afloat as the state has witnessed sustained Hindutva rhetoric since the days of the Jana Sangh.

Facing a difficult battle, the BJP leadership went the extra mile was reflected in the fact that Home minister Amit Shah in one of his tours focussed only on pacifying the rebels. As against this, there was much talk of the Congress campaign picking up early and petering out towards the end.

Nath was not up to the mark and became known when the way he spurned the demand of Samajwadi Party leader Akhilesh Yadav of a few seats for his party to contest in the state. The SP is a key partner in the I.N.D.I.A. alliance and is a crucial player in neighbouring Uttar Pradesh. Nath also failed to ally with the Gondwana Ganatantra Party and take the Left parties on board.

The Congress’ problem is that it has not built a second line of leadership in Madhya Pradesh despite losing electoral battles since 2003. It won the 2018 assembly polls narrowly by securing 114 seats, but Jyotiraditya Scindia’s desertion along with some 20 party MLAs three years back brought down the Kamal Nath government.

What Madhya Pradesh has witnessed is a victory of the BJP and not a defeat of the Congress. The BJP’s selection of candidates, election strategy and campaigning were professional at a time when the Congress left the state entirely to Nath and Digvijaya Singh.

If Chouhan’s welfare programmes ensured the BJP's victory in Madhya Pradesh, then the Congress should have won the Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh polls because Ashok Gehlot and Bhupesh Baghel too did not lag in undertaking and executing welfare programmes. But that did not happen. The Congress was either overconfident of its victory or underestimated the BJP, which put up a stiff fight till the last ball.

The defeats in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan are expected to have a sobering effect on the Congress and it could play on the front foot for getting the I.N.D.I.A. act together ahead of the Lok Sabha polls. 

With the clock ticking for the Lok Sabha polls drawing closer, the BJP would go aggressively in the big battle ahead. To counter it, Rahul Gandhi needs to identify a ‘Revanth Reddy’ in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh.

(Sunil Gatade and Venkatesh Kesari are senior journalists.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.