Mandal 2.0: How the national caste census could reshape Indian politics

The caste census, which is to be conducted along with the general census as announced by the Union government, is likely to have a far-reaching impact on the political map of the country while also providing valuable data to support planning and policymaking by the Centre.

As caste remains a major socio-economic faultline and plays a key role in nearly every sphere of life, its enumeration could become a transformative tool for delivering welfare measures and expanding access to education for deserving communities. It holds the potential to make governance more inclusive.

What is important is that the presumptive numbers will end, allowing the government to plan on the basis of quality data generated by the caste census. Until now, both the government and judiciary have depended on presumptive numbers when it came to the Other Backward Classes (OBC), the basis for which was the 1980 report of the Mandal Commission. The V P Singh government implemented this report in 1990, but its data was itself based on the 1931 caste census – the last such exercise. Interestingly, the 1931 census included present-day Bangladesh and Pakistan.

So, actual figures for all castes and possibly sub-castes will be available in the next census – the 15th since the first census held in 1881 – although the timeline has yet to be announced. Census figures are important as governments, both at the Centre and states, rely heavily on the substantial scientific data culled out by the decadal exercise. Fund allocations become skewed if quality data is not available for the planners. The census is a better way of identifying socially deprived groups and ensuring benefits reach them.

In 2011, the Manmohan Singh dispensation carried out a socio-economic caste census. It never saw the light of day. In 2017, the Narendra Modi government constituted the Justice Rohini Commission
for sub-categorisation of OBCs. Not much was heard about it.

To implement the census findings, the NDA government and Parliament will, in all probability, be called upon to take a major decision to increase the ceiling of 50% reservation for deprived sections. This will have to stand the test of law, as it is the Supreme Court which has laid down the benchmark. The court has fixed a cap of 27% for the OBCs besides 22.5% for SCs and STs. It upheld the Centre’s 10% quota for the economically weaker sections in 2022.

Politically, the next caste census – dubbed Mandal 2.0 – may open a gateway unseen hitherto. The established `realities’ may be hit, as the census will give out the near-exact population figures of each caste. The dominant castes until now may be forced to vacate the vantage position they had occupied in favour of the deprived among the OBCs.

The outcome will have major political implications as populous backward communities will demand their just share in the distribution of party tickets in elections, increased numbers in cabinet, among others.

The Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA government at the Centre surprised many with its caste census announcement, especially as the country’s focus was firmly on the response to the Pahalgam terror attack. All along, the BJP had opposed caste census, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself describing it as “urban naxal thinking”. A day before the decision was taken, Union Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari had lashed out at the caste census, saying it was “against core Hindutva ideology”.

With Congress and other opposition parties making it a main plank in the elections and with several state governments undertaking caste surveys, Modi perhaps thought it better not to wait. Besides, Bihar, an electorally significant heartland state, is heading for assembly polls later this year. Bihar, along with UP, was the epicentre of Mandal politics in the 1990s. BJP hopes for major returns from the caste census decision in the Bihar polls, not just for NDA but for itself as an individual party.

The saffron outfit, dubbed a party of upper castes, is now decisively out to embrace the OBCs with the announcement. It has also outsmarted Congress, as it has robbed the century-old party of its main plank in the coming elections. Caste census was the major campaign demand of the Congress in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

However, it must be said to the credit of the BJP that it started courting OBCs quite some time back. It was because of this fact that it was able to win the confidence of OBC voters in states like Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra and Delhi. It has made OBCs chief ministers in MP and Haryana. With the caste census announcement, the BJP hopes to win back OBCs in Uttar Pradesh, where desertion of these communities was said to be the reason behind the party not performing as expected in the 2024 LS elections.

Though many claim that the Centre announced caste enumeration because of the pressure the Congress mounted, the party is worried that the BJP may have pulled the caste census rug from under its feet. Congress will now have to search for a new plank for the elections. Congress may have an eye on the upper caste votes now. If the upper castes are angry with the BJP over the caste-wise exercise, then the possibility of their votes shifting to Congress, at least a portion of it, cannot be ruled out.

Four states have so far conducted caste surveys, all of them by non-BJP governments: Karnataka, Telangana, Bihar and Odisha. Of them, only Telangana and Bihar have implemented the survey findings.

The ruling Congress in Karnataka has come under pressure from the dominant Lingayat and Vokkaliga communities not to implement the report. The report is perceived to have gone against them, reducing their size of population compared to what was presumed so far. The Congress government may see the central announcement as a face saver and defer making the findings public, let alone implementing them, preferring to wait for the central census results.

(The writer is a senior journalist based in Bengaluru)