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Rejection of WHO estimate unhelpful

The Modi government had even demanded that the WHO withhold publication of the report for 10 years
Last Updated 09 May 2022, 02:47 IST

The government’s rejection of the World Health Organisation’s report that estimated that there were 47 lakh Covid-related deaths in the country during 2020 and 2021, nearly 10 times more than the official death toll of 5.2 lakh, lacks credibility. Apart from the government, experts from agencies like the Niti Aayog, the ICMR and the AIIMS have all come out with denials of the WHO estimate, questioning the methodology used for counting the excess deaths. It should be noted that the WHO estimates for all countries are higher than the official death toll given by their governments. But other countries, with the exception of a few like Pakistan, have not raised the kind of objections that India has. The Modi government had even demanded that the WHO withhold publication of the report for 10 years. Perhaps that’s because the discrepancy is much higher in India’s case. WHO figures show that about one-third of the world’s Covid deaths occurred in India.

The government has questioned the methodology and modelling techniques used by WHO to arrive at its estimates. It has accused the organisation of ignoring the Civil Registration System (CRS) data presented by the country. It has also said that there are inconsistencies and inaccuracies in the criteria and assumptions used by WHO. But many independent experts within the country have questioned the government’s claims. The CRS data in the country has never been robust and reliable. Only some states in the country have a reliable death registration system. The CRS data for 2020 released last week showed that the registration of deaths from all causes increased by 4.75 lakh in 2020 compared to 2019. It is well-known that a large number of Covid deaths went unreported as many of them, 50 per cent and more in some states during the peak of the pandemic, happened at home. It should be noted that governments have paid compensation for more Covid deaths than shown by the official death toll and have continued to revise their mortality figures.

The WHO has brought out the report after studying Covid mortality in all countries for over a year. It has no reason to be biased against India or to show the country in a poor light. It used well-accepted methodologies and techniques, based on cremation data, compensation claims, comparison with past years and the like, to arrive at its estimates. The WHO estimates are close to the estimates made by similar studies like the one by the prestigious medical journal The Lancet. It does not do the Modi government any credit to reject and deny all such data. It is necessary to have correct and reliable data to understand the virus better, to offer better treatment and to prevent the occurrence of the pandemic in future.

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(Published 08 May 2022, 17:07 IST)

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