The White House puts Pakistan’s elite back on top

By Mihir Sharma

Pakistan’s military, which exercises effective control over that the nuclear-armed country, has an enviable tendency to land on its feet even after a crisis. The country may be facing an economic predicament, and recently endured a confrontation with India in which the weaknesses in its defences were laid bare, but the “establishment,” as the euphemism goes, has emerged stronger for it.

That is thanks, in large part, to President Donald Trump.

It was not so long ago that Pakistan’s army chief, Asim Munir, was known only for his backward-looking approach to international relations and to Pakistani identity. But last week he was granted a lunch date with Trump, which, according to the army, was engaging enough for the president to spontaneously extend it from one hour to two. It’s hard to overstate how unusual this is: No US president has ever hosted a Pakistani army chief on such equal terms.

Both Munir and Pakistan’s civilian politicians have been very free with praise for Trump. They have repeatedly thanked him for bringing about a ceasefire between India and Pakistan, and even announced that they had nominated the president for the Nobel Peace Prize. Trump fancies himself as a peacemaker, and has made it quite clear that he thinks he deserves a Nobel — and is no doubt grateful to the only other country that seems to agree.

New Delhi, which is outraged by the suggestion that Trump had anything to do with the pause in hostilities between India and Pakistan, is watching this new-found closeness with more than a little puzzlement. Trump appears to be rediscovering what so many presidents before him have — that any involvement just gets you deeper in and it’s hard to find real partners for peace. He will also learn, therefore, that the Pakistani military can’t be relied on.

In the interim, India seems to be keeping its distance from the US. Quite unusually, Prime Minister Narendra Modi let everyone know that he had refused an invitation to visit Trump last week. That was probably a wise decision, given that Munir was in town at the same time. He wouldn’t want to be ambushed into a photograph with Munir, especially one that had Trump standing nearby.

Every time the US gets embroiled in the Middle East, the Pakistani establishment swiftly regains a privileged position in Washington. If Trump is truly committed to controlling Iran’s ambitions, then relations with the Islamic Republic’s eastern neighbour takes on a new importance.

But things won’t be quite that simple for the generals this time. Given the continued popularity of the jailed anti-American firebrand and former prime minister Imran Khan, Munir has a political tightrope to walk. Less than a day after Islamabad announced it had nominated Trump for a Nobel, it had to condemn its preferred peacemaker for bombing Iran’s nuclear installations. Nor can Munir at any point alienate Beijing, on which the military depends for arms, subsidies, and moral support.

But the danger for Pakistan runs deeper than that. In the past few years, as the country dealt with an economic crisis and the ravages of climate change, there was also real hope that its elite would finally recognize the importance of reform. As one columnist argued in 2022, “the desire to benefit from geopolitical rents has become innate” in Pakistan’s establishment. But with China beginning to measure out its largesse, a Washington uninterested in Pakistan and Gulf monarchies wooing India instead, the days of depending on foreign generosity seemed to be over.

The current civilian administration, led by Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, is dependent on the military’s support to stay in power, and is visibly straining to reform the country’s dysfunctional economy. The military will back him — as long as they don’t see an alternative.

But now the establishment might rethink their plans. Munir’s domestic position has been shored up by the clashes with India. And if his charm offensive on Trump works, could Western cash begin to flow into the army’s coffers again? That enchanting prospect might be too tempting for them to back the sort of reform, including reductions in the defence budget, that Pakistan desperately needs.

Pakistan’s military might prevail after every upheaval, but the country doesn’t. Without reform, it will keep falling, even as its establishment thrives.