Why, for now, Nitish will not rock NDA boat in Bihar

A series of significant developments took place in the last 10 days that set the rumour mills agog with the theory that Bihar was headed for a major political upheaval. It all started on May 30 when hours before Narendra Modi and his team took oath on the sprawling lawns of Rashtrapati Bhawan, Nitish Kumar decided that the JD(U) will not be part of the NDA government at the Centre.

Nitish, who is also the national president of his party, was miffed over BJP chief Amit Shah’s proposal that only one minister from the JD(U) was supposed to take oath as ‘symbolic representation’. This rule was applicable to all NDA allies. Even the Shiv Sena, which had 18 MPs, two more than the JD(U)’s 16 MPs, agreed to the proposal. But Nitish put his foot down and asked for ‘proportional representation’ in the Modi cabinet.

“During the Vajpayee era, this (proportional representation) was the methodology adopted in the NDA regime. But it was a coalition era. Now that the BJP has a majority of its own, rules are now different,” a sulking Nitish said while reiterating that “all was well” in the NDA.

Two days later, on June 2, he hurriedly expanded his cabinet wherein he inducted eight new JD(U) ministers. In a tit-for-tat, he offered the BJP one ministerial berth, which the saffron camp politely refused.

The sense of unease was palpable. Tongues started to wag whether Nitish was preparing the ground for another political somersault. Such a theory got credence when the JD(U) and the BJP, the two ruling partners in Bihar, organised separate Iftar parties in Patna. Neither any JD(U) leader attended the BJP’s Iftar party, nor did any BJP leader attend the JD(U) function.

Peacemaker

Amid such an increasingly tense atmosphere, LJP chief Ram Vilas Paswan tried to play the role of peacemaker and brought Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and his deputy Sushil Modi under one roof at his Iftar party. But within minutes, Nitish walked an extra mile to reach the residence of former CM Jitan Ram Manjhi, with whom he has had a running feud ever since he ousted him in 2015 and donned the CM’s mantle.

Manjhi, one of the important Mahagatbandhan leaders, too, had organised an Iftar party and invited Nitish, apart from the Grand Alliance leaders, at his residence. Eyebrows were raised when Nitish hugged Manjhi. Lensmen present there fell over each other to capture the moment as Nitish is not known to easily forget and forgive his opponents. The new bonhomie set the rumour mill abuzz again that another round of political churning was on the anvil.

A day later, RJD national vice-president and former union minister Raghuvansh Prasad Singh urged Nitish to dump the BJP and re-join the Grand Alliance. Former chief minister Rabri Devi, too, echoed similar sentiments when she said, “The RJD will have no problem if Nitish re-joins Mahagatbandhan.”

As the political weather started changing in this part of the cow-belt, the Modi-Shah combine kept a close tab on the fast-changing developments. But, in the meantime, one of the most controversial BJP leaders, Giriraj Singh, who was elevated as cabinet minister — reward for his frequent foot-in-mouth statements? — rubbed Nitish Kumar the wrong way.

Through his tweet, he made fun of Nitish as well as LJP chief Ram Vilas Paswan for holding Iftar parties. While Giriraj making fun of non-NDA leaders was no surprise, castigating two senior regional satraps like Nitish and Paswan provided the clearest evidence that something was amiss in the BJP-led alliance. “An impression gained ground that Giriraj could not have sought to antagonise both Nitish and Paswan without the ‘blessings’ of party chief Amit Shah,” said an NDA source.

To dispel such a theory, Amit Shah, within hours, pulled up Giriraj and reportedly warned him to desist from making such controversial remarks which could adversely affect the longevity of the NDA in Bihar.

Eye on 2020

Shah had reasons to do so. Much like Nitish, Shah too has his eyes on the Bihar Assembly elections, slated for October-November 2020. And despite the BJP sweeping the Hindi heartland, Bihar remains the only state where the BJP has, so far, never had a chief minister.

“Shah the strategist would not like to lose a key ally like Nitish at this juncture when Modi has just started his second innings. After all, Shah knows very well that Bihar politics is like three angles of a triangle, where the three major players — RJD, BJP and JD(U) — are equally competent and significant. Whenever the two players have joined hands, the third one has been completely decimated,” argued senior political commentator Ajay Kumar.

To buttress his point, he cited the 2005 and 2010 Assembly results when the RJD was routed when JD(U) and the BJP joined hands. “Conversely, during the 2015 Assembly elections, the BJP was decimated (despite Modi’s relentless campaigning) when the JD(U) and the RJD joined hands,” he added.

And in all the landslide victories, one thing has been common: Nitish is always on the winning side. “As of now, there is no substitute to Nitish in Bihar. And no matter how massive the mandate may be in favour of Modi, the BJP too knows well that it needs Nitish as much as the JD(U) strongman needs BJP. So, despite tough posturing and certain reservations, the BJP and JD(U) will work in tandem,” a senior NDA leader, who has worked closely with Nitish as well as the BJP, told DH.