Western Ghats will lose 33% biodiversity by 2050 due to climate change, warn scientists who authored IPCC report

The arid regions of Belagavi, Vijayapura, Kalaburagi and Bagalkot which will witness the largest disasters, they said

Climate change will wreak havoc in north-eastern parts of the Karnataka as well as the districts housing the Western Ghats as high-intensity rain in short duration will overwhelm the existing systems of precipitation and run-off channels within the next 30 years, said two scientists who were part of the team that wrote the latest UN climate change report.

In a discussion organised by Bangalore Climate Change Initiative-Karnataka (BCCI-K) here on Saturday, prof (retd) N H Ravindranath, and Prof G Bala, both from the Indian Institute of Science (IISc), said the models for Karnataka show that it was imperative for the state government to ensure every single development project takes into consideration the potential long-term climate impact.

The two were part of the group of scientists and experts who worked on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report which issued a grim warning to the world earlier this week.

"Even when we commit to the COP-25 agreement and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the changes that will occur in the next 20 to 30 years are disastrous. Because the change is not enough to reduce the damage," Ravindranath said, calling for urgent reforms in the sectors of power generation, cement, steel and other heavy industries.

He said that at the state level, Karnataka has much to lose from the extreme weather phenomena. "About 33 per cent of the biodiversity of the Western Ghats will be lost by 2050 due to extreme weather. This is irreversible. As part of this change, the forests will change from evergreen to deciduous and dry deciduous," he said.

Also Read | India already witnessing climate events IPCC warned of: Report

However, it is the arid regions of Belagavi, Vijayapura, Kalaburagi and Bagalkot which will witness the largest disasters. "The geographical formations, starting from the time of the soil, will not be able to handle the intense downpour that occurs in short duration. This will be followed by prolonged drought which will prevail for years together," he said.

Dr Govindasamy Bala of the Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (IISc) noted that the changes in climate, driven by humans, were unprecedented.

"The CO2 level in the atmosphere was this high 2 million years ago. The temperature has already gone up by 1.1 degrees Celsius. The planet was warm like this for a brief duration around 6,000 years ago. We are reaching conditions that are not known to human civilisation. The conditions on the planet that allowed humans to develop are fast disappearing," he said.

Bala said the IPCC report has assessed three scenarios: the low, medium and high emission scenarios. "The report's stark warning is based on the mean scenario. However, continuing business as usual lands us in a high emission scenario where the humans fail to adopt emission cuts or fail to adopt them soon enough. Then, the temperature could go up by 4 degrees Celsius in another 80 years. At present, with an increase of 1 degree Celsius, we are already seeing flood, drought and forest fire disasters across the world," he said.

BCCI-K president and former chairman of the legislative council B K Chandrashekhar said the Union government should fund climate change studies at state level. "Despite the warnings, the Centre allocates about Rs 20 lakh once in two or three years. This is the time the government should step up. People should ensure the state leaders do not touch forests," he said.