Clean air, but nothing to cheer about

Look ma, no pollution! The lack of global economic activity has reduced pollution and carbon emissions

One image has taken social media by storm. It is the picture of Dhauladhar range, which is a part of the Himalayas, taken from Jalandhar, Punjab. Dhauladhar is about 200 km straight from Jalandhar, and the city’s residents have seen this view for the first time in several decades. This image was possible because there was no haze to obscure the majestic mountains. Similar pictures of the blue sky, clean water and wildlife on the streets are flooding the social media to show how the COVID-19 lockdown has improved the environment.

But it is an obvious outcome: pandemics like COVID-19 will cause a non-permanent slowdown to economic activities, which in turn will lead to a dip in emission and pollution levels. In China, the world's largest carbon dioxide emitter, experts estimate that emissions during the peak pandemic period fell by about 25%. It is estimated that global carbon emissions could fall by more than 5% in 2020 due to coronavirus. This would be the most significant dip in one single year since the second world war. Similarly, during the lockdown, the air quality has improved significantly in most parts of India, especially in the Indo-Gangetic plains. Air quality in Delhi, notorious for being the worst in the world, is now in the 'satisfactory' zone.

Read: A virus, humanity, and the earth

This is not the first time in history that an epidemic has left its mark on the environment. Throughout history, pandemics have caused large-scale deaths, thereby reducing human influence on the environment. Interestingly, researchers believe that the Anthropocene – the age of the humans – started with an epidemic. This epidemic, which happened around 1610 and killed more than 50 million people in Latin America, was brought about by the transmission of smallpox virus from the European colonisers to the native population. The impact of this epidemic was so significant that the atmospheric carbon dioxide levels in 1610 dipped dramatically from the normal. This happened because most of the people who died were farmers. When their fields were no longer tended, trees were able to grow back and suck carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere. The lower carbon dioxide levels led to the cooling of the planet and triggered a 'little ice age'. This was for the first time that human activity had planetary implications and hence is considered the beginning of the Anthropocene.

But it is also clear from history that most of these environmental improvements during pandemics have been short-lived. While the epidemic of 1610 killed most of the native population, it also paved the way for large-scale European settlement in Latin America. These settlers destroyed the environment, especially forests, to feed the raw material needs of the colonisers. The current improvements are also short-lived. Data coming from China indicates that carbon dioxide emissions were back to the normal range once the strict measures had been removed.

We are, therefore, experiencing a short-lived improvement in environmental quality that has happened for all the wrong reasons, including the possibility of millions of people dying due to COVID-19. This short-lived improvement is neither a permanent solution to the environmental problem nor a desirable outcome. However, the present situation does provide us with an opportunity to reflect, learn and mend our ways. Let me list four learnings – one local, two global and one philosophical.

1. There is more to pollution than just vehicles and industry: Even when the whole of India is in lockdown, the air quality in Delhi is 'satisfactory', and in Bengaluru, it is 'moderate'. Most of India is still not meeting the World Health Organization’s air quality standards. Mind you, the months of March and April are also considered good for air quality due to favourable weather conditions. This indicates that there is a lot of background pollution coming from the environmental sources that we are not addressing. I guess that most of this pollution is due to dust from land degradation. So, addressing air quality will require large-scale ecological restoration. Tinkering with the economy and only focusing on techno-fixes will not work.

2. Without structural changes, we cannot improve the environment quality: The current reduction in emissions and pollution is short-lived and will quickly rebound once the pandemic subsides. The world requires significant structural changes in the economy and lifestyle to reduce pollution levels and improve ecological health.

3. We are all in it together: If there is one thing that this pandemic has forcefully reminded us about, it is that the world is one. A small wildlife market in one corner of the world has brought the whole globe to its knees. Environmental crises such as climate change and the loss of biodiversity which the world is facing, therefore, will impact all of us. No country in the world can shield itself from the wrath of climate change. We, therefore, will need collective action to solve the environmental crisis. So, people who are predicting the end of multilateralism are wrong. We require far more robust multilateralism going ahead.

4. Wintry warning from nature: We have to recognise and acknowledge that because of our sheer number (the human population is predicted to reach 9 billion by 2050) and socio-economic practices, we are destroying the environment. The environment, in turn, is becoming hostile to our survival. The COVID-19 pandemic also has its origin in the destruction of the environment and the practice of eating exotic animals. We should, therefore, take this crisis as a warning from nature and mend our ways. If one virus can bring the world to a standstill, imagine what ten novel viruses can do. We will have to tread light on the earth to survive on earth.

Lastly, I have a message for some in my own community – those working for a clean environment and to mitigate climate change. Celebrating clean air and blue skies at the expense of the misery of the wider public is not environmentalism. True environmentalism is recognising existing problems in society, finding solutions, and then working with the people to implement them. This is, therefore, not the time to gloat over a clean environment.

(The writer is CEO, iFOREST, New Delhi)