FIFA World Cup: How opening game losses affect qualification chances

The 2022 FIFA World Cup has begun on a memorable note, with two major upsets having already taken place in the tournament, courtesy of Saudi Arabia and Japan who beat behemoths Argentina and Germany respectively.

With the two losses having sent shockwaves around the footballing world, the question on everyone's mind is: will Argentina and Germany survive their groups?

Here, we take a look at what it takes to qualify from a World Cup group and the track record of teams that lost their opening games in the tournament.

Group stage 101:

World Cup groups consist of four teams each with all teams facing each other once, so losing the opening game doesn't necessarily mean elimination from the competition.

That being said, with only a total of 9 points to play for, a loss in the opening game makes the remaining two group stage games an uphill task for teams, not least because of the psychological pressure of having to win both or risk elimination.

Also Read | Argentina must look past Saudi trauma for shot at World Cup glory

In other words, it's not guaranteed that Argentina and Germany will exit the tournament in the group stage, but there is certainly a possibility of them doing so.

So, how many points does a team need to qualify?

There's no threshold that guarantees qualification as a team's chances of qualification often rest on not just their results, but also on the results of the other matches in the group.

That being said, winning two of the three games—or securing six points—is usually enough to guarantee a team a spot in the Round of 16.

This is evidenced by the average nmber of points secured by group winners over the past two decades: since the World Cup shifted to a 32-team format in 1998, the average number of points accumulated by group winners has been 7.38. Meanwhile, since 1998, the average number of points accumulated by group runners-up has been 5.

There are, of course, exceptions, like Chile qualifying in 1998 with a mere three points, but such cases are rare and often contingent on an overall poor show by all teams in the group.

What happens if there's a tie?

In a case where two or more teams finish a group equal on points, their ultimate standing in the group is determined by taking into account the following factors in order: goal difference, goals scored, head-to-head record, goal difference in the games between the tied teams, goals scored in the games between the tied teams, and fair play records.

Teams that have made the Round of 16 with low points tallies:

While group runners-up have, on an average, secured 5 points, there have been cases where teams with a lesser number of points have made it through.

Chile's 1998 campaign saw them progress through the group stage without having won a single game: the South American team drew all three matches, but managed to beat Austria and Cameroon for a spot in the knockout stages.

In 2002, four teams—Paraguay, Turkey, USA, and Italy—all qualified for the knockout stages with just four points, having won one, lost one, and drawn one match each.

Also Read | FIFA World Cup: A selected retrospective

A similar thing happened in the 2010 World Cup where Mexico, South Korea, Ghana, and Slovakia went into the Round of 16 with just four points each.

Greece, Algeria, USA, and Nigeria managed an identical feat again in Brazil in 2014, while in 2018, Argentina and Japan progressed to the knockout stages with just four points each.

Given this fact, not all appears to be lost for Argentina and Germany and both could, realistically speaking, still manage to qualify comfortably.

Has a team ever made it to the World Cup final after losing their first game?

Yes, and one team has also gone on to win the World Cup after losing their opening match.

While Argentina, West Germany, and Italy have all made it to World Cup finals after losing their first game, Spain is the only team to have lifted the coveted trophy after losing their opening game.